Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Understanding the lead/lag structure among regional business cycles

Contents:

Author Info

  • Stefano Magrini

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari)

  • Margherita Gerolimetto

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari)

  • Hasan Engin Duran

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari)

Abstract

The analysis of synchronization among regional or national business cycles has recently been attracting a growing interest within the economic literature. Far less attention has instead been devoted to a closely related issue: given a certain level of synchronization, some economies might be systematically ahead of others along the swings of the business cycle. In other words, there could be a lead/lag structure in which some economies systematically lead or lag behind others. In the present paper we aim at providing a thorough analysis of the lead/lag structure among a system of regional economies. This task is achieved in two steps. First, we show that leading (or lagging behind) is a feature that does not occur at random across the economies. Second, we investigate the economic drivers that could explain such a behavior. To do so, we employ data for 48 conterminous US states between 1979 and 2010.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.unive.it/media/allegato/DIP/Economia/Working_papers/Working_papers_2011/WP_DSE_magrini_gerolimetto_duran_06_11.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari" in its series Working Papers with number 2011_06.

as in new window
Length: 39
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ven:wpaper:2011_06

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Cannaregio, S. Giobbe no 873 , 30121 Venezia
Phone: +39-0412349621
Fax: +39-0412349176
Email:
Web page: http://www.unive.it/dip.economia
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Regional business cycles; lead/lag structure; synchronization;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2003. "What explains the stock market's reaction to Federal Reserve policy?," Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 174, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. Maurice Obstfeld, 1992. "Risk-taking, global diversification, and growth," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 61, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  3. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Papaioannou, Elias & Peydró, José-Luis, 2010. "Financial regulation, financial globalization and the synchronization of economic activity," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 1221, European Central Bank.
  4. Michael T. Owyang & Howard J. Wall, 2006. "Regional VARs and the channels of monetary policy," Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 2006-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  5. Graves, Philip E., 1979. "A life-cycle empirical analysis of migration and climate, by race," MPRA Paper 19921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Heathcote, J. & Perri, F., 2001. "Financial Globalization and Real Regionalization," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business- 01-11, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  7. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Juan M. Ruiz, 2008. "Do Trade and Financial Linkages Foster Business cycle Synchronization in a small economy?," Working Papers, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department 0801, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  8. Stefano Schiavo, 2008. "Financial Integration, GDP Correlation and the Endogeneity of Optimum Currency Areas," Sciences Po publications, Sciences Po info:hdl:2441/9857, Sciences Po.
  9. Graves, Philip E., 1980. "Migration and climate," MPRA Paper 19916, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, August.
  11. Marianne Baxter & Michael Kouparitsas, 2004. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago WP-04-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  12. Glenn Otto & Graham Voss & Luke Willard, 2001. "Understanding OECD Output Correlations," RBA Research Discussion Papers, Reserve Bank of Australia rdp2001-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  13. Sorensen, Bent E & Yosha, Oved, 1999. "Risk Sharing and Industrial Specialization: Regional and International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 2295, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad & Marco E. Terrones, 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 57-62, May.
  15. Jarko Fidrmuc & Kentaro Iwatsubo & Taro Ikeda, 2010. "Financial Integration and International Transmission of Business Cycles: Evidence from Dynamic Correlations," Discussion Papers, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University 1007, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
  16. Andrew Abbott & Joshy Easaw & Tao Xing, 2008. "Trade Integration and Business Cycle Convergence: Is the Relation Robust across Time and Space?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 110(2), pages 403-417, 06.
  17. Gerald Carlino & Keith Sill, 2000. "Regional income fluctuations: common trends and common cycles," Working Papers 00-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  18. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Gerald Carlino & Robert Defina, 1998. "The Differential Regional Effects Of Monetary Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 572-587, November.
  20. Theodore M. Crone, 2005. "An Alternative Definition of Economic Regions in the United States Based on Similarities in State Business Cycles," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 617-626, November.
  21. Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2011. "The intranational business cycle in Japan," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 63(1), pages 111-133, January.
  22. Beckworth, David, 2010. "One nation under the fed? The asymmetric effects of US monetary policy and its implications for the United States as an optimal currency area," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 732-746, September.
  23. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman & Kamar Ali & M. Rose Olfert, 2008. "The Geographic Diversity of U.S. Nonmetropolitan Growth Dynamics: A Geographically Weighted Regression Approach," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 84(2), pages 241-266.
  24. Gerald Carlino & Robert DeFina, 1997. "The differential regional effects of monetary policy: evidence from the U.S. States," Working Papers 97-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  25. J. A. Hausman, 1976. "Specification Tests in Econometrics," Working papers, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics 185, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  26. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
  27. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ven:wpaper:2011_06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Geraldine Ludbrook).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.