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The Portfolio Allocation Effects of Investor Sentiment about the Ability of Managers to Beat the Market

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Abstract

I present a model that can transform discounts on closed-end mutual funds into a measure of investor sentiment about the ability of fund managers to beat the market. This measure of sentiment varies positively with capital flows into actively managed open-end mutual funds, but negatively with capital flows into passively managed index funds. Investors appear to re-allocate their portfolios between actively and passively managed investment vehicles based on expectations about by how much managers will beat or trail the market.

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File URL: http://irving.vassar.edu/VCEWP/VCEWP77.pdf
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Paper provided by Vassar College Department of Economics in its series Vassar College Department of Economics Working Paper Series with number 77.

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Date of creation: Oct 2005
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Handle: RePEc:vas:papers:77

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  1. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Lee, Charles M C & Shleifer, Andrei & Thaler, Richard H, 1991. " Investor Sentiment and the Closed-End Fund Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 75-109, March.
  3. Lee, Charles M C & Shleifer, Andrei & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Closed-End Mutual Funds," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 153-64, Fall.
  4. Malkiel, Burton G, 1977. "The Valuation of Closed-End Investment-Company Shares," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(3), pages 847-59, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Flynn, Sean Masaki, 2003. "Limited Arbitrage, Segmentation, and Investor Heterogeneity: Why the Law of One Price So Often Fails," Vassar College Department of Economics Working Paper Series 56, Vassar College Department of Economics.

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