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Syphilis Cycles

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Author Info

  • David Aadland

    ()
    (Department of Economics and Finance, University of Wyoming)

  • David Finnoff

    ()
    (Department of Economics and Finance, University of Wyoming)

  • Kevin X.D. Huang

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University)

Abstract

Syphilis has re-emerged as a global public health issue. In lesser developed countries, millions of people are contracting the disease, which can be fatal without access to proper treatment. In developed countries, prevalence is on the rise and has cycled around endemic levels for decades. We investigate syphilis dynamics by extending the classic SIRS epidemiological model to incorporate forward-looking, rational individuals and the AIDS epidemic. The integrated economic-epidemiological model shows that human preferences over health and sexual activity are central to the nature of syphilis cycles. We find that low-activity individuals will behave in a manner that significantly dampen the cycles, while high-activity individuals will tend to exacerbate the cycles, a phenomenon we refer to as rational dynamic resonance. The model also provides insights into two failed attempts by the U.S. government to eradicate syphilis from the U.S. population.

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File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/pubs/VUECON/vu10-w06.pdf
File Function: First version, May 2010
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Vanderbilt University Department of Economics in its series Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers with number 1006.

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Date of creation: May 2010
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Handle: RePEc:van:wpaper:1006

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Web page: http://www.vanderbilt.edu/econ/wparchive/index.html

Related research

Keywords: syphilis; AIDS; disease; eradication; cycles; fatalism; dynamic resonance; SIRS;

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References

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  1. Steven M. Goldman and James Lightwood., 1996. "Cost Optimization in the SIS Model of Infectious Disease with Treatment," Economics Working Papers 96-245, University of California at Berkeley.
  2. Gersovitz, Mark & Hammer, Jeffrey S., 2001. "The economic control of infectious diseases," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2607, The World Bank.
  3. Momota, Akira & Tabata, Ken & Futagami, Koichi, 2005. "Infectious disease and preventive behavior in an overlapping generations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 1673-1700, October.
  4. Jason F. Shogren & Thomas D. Crocker, 1990. "Risk, Self-Protection, and Ex Ante Economic Value," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 90-wp57, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  5. M. Christopher Auld, 1996. "Choices, Beliefs, and Infectious Disease Dynamics," Working Papers 938, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  6. Viscusi, W Kip, 1990. "Do Smokers Underestimate Risks?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(6), pages 1253-69, December.
  7. Grossman, Michael, 1972. "On the Concept of Health Capital and the Demand for Health," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(2), pages 223-55, March-Apr.
  8. Michael Kremer, 1996. "Integrating Behavioral Choice into Epidemiological Models of the AIDS Epidemic," NBER Working Papers 5428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Gersovitz, Mark & Hammer, Jeffrey S., 2005. "Tax/subsidy policies toward vector-borne infectious diseases," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(4), pages 647-674, April.
  10. Geoffard, P.Y. & Philipson, T., 1995. "Rational Epidemics and their Public Control," DELTA Working Papers 95-15, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  11. Ehrlich, Isaac & Becker, Gary S, 1972. "Market Insurance, Self-Insurance, and Self-Protection," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(4), pages 623-48, July-Aug..
  12. Kremer, Michael, 1996. "Integrating Behavioral Choice into Epidemiological Models of AIDS," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(2), pages 549-73, May.
  13. Peltzman, Sam, 1975. "The Effects of Automobile Safety Regulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(4), pages 677-725, August.
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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Syphilis cannot be eradicated
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2010-12-20 15:52:00
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Cited by:
  1. Toxvaerd, Flavio, 2010. "Recurrent Infection and Externalities in Prevention," CEPR Discussion Papers 8112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. David Aadland & David Finnoff & Kevin x.d. Huang, 2013. "The Equilibrium Dynamics of Economic Epidemiology," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 13-00003, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.

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  1. Economic Logic blog

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