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Fiscal Discipline before and after EMU - Permanent Weight Loss or Crash Diet?

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew Hughes Hallett

    (Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University)

  • John Lewis

    (Tallinn Technical University and Bank of Estonia)

Abstract

This paper studies the evolution of European fiscal policies and the attempts at budgetary consolidation through three periods: the pre-Maastricht phase (to 1991); the run up to monetary union (1992-97), and finally the stability pact phase (1998 onwards). Using three separate indicators Ð the probability of undertaking a consolidation, the degree to which it is sustained, and the probability of exceeding a specified deficit limit Ð we search for structural breaks which could signify a change in the average level of fiscal discipline in these periods. We find increased discipline only up to 1997. Thereafter discipline erodes to the extent that, by 2005, there is less discipline than before the Maastricht process started. We conclude the new fiscal discipline was temporary; a product of the sanction of being denied entry to the Euro, and that EMU itself has had no impact on discipline (in the absence of that sanction). Our methodological innovation is to show the importance of the dynamics of fiscal behaviour: step dummies for changes in the average level of discipline, and trend dummies to capture any decline/increase relative to that average. A single structural break test will miss these dynamic effects, and may generate the erroneous conclusion that fiscal discipline had tightened since the start of phase two of EMU.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Hughes Hallett & John Lewis, 2005. "Fiscal Discipline before and after EMU - Permanent Weight Loss or Crash Diet?," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0516, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:van:wpaper:0516
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. von Hagen, Jurgen & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Strauch, Rolf, 2002. "Budgetary Consolidation in Europe: Quality, Economic Conditions, and Persistence," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 512-535, December.
    2. Helge Berger & George Kopits & István P. Székely, 2007. "Fiscal Indulgence In Central Europe: Loss Of The External Anchor?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 54(1), pages 116-135, February.
    3. Roel Beetsma, 2001. "Does EMU Need a Stability Pact?," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Anne Brunila & Marco Buti & Daniele Franco (ed.), The Stability and Growth Pact, chapter 2, pages 23-52, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Galí, Jordi & Perotti, Roberto, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 3933, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Alessandro Turrini, 2004. "Public investment and the EU fiscal framework," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 202, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aleksander Aristovnik & Matevž Meze, 2017. "The impact of supranational fiscal rules on public finance: the case of EMU member states," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 19(1), pages 38-53.
    2. Pasquale Foresti, 2015. "Monetary and debt-concerned fiscal policies interaction in monetary unions," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 541-552, October.
    3. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, 2009. "New Evidence on the Effectiveness of Europe's Fiscal Restrictions," Working Papers 2009-13, CEPII research center.
    4. Bernadeta Baran, 2013. "Reguła średniookresowego celu budżetowego w Unii Europejskiej," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 11-12, pages 23-47.
    5. Philipp Paulus, 2006. "The final blow to the Stability Pact? EMU enlargement and government debt," Otto-Wolff-Institut Discussion Paper Series 03/2006, Otto-Wolff-Institut für Wirtschaftsordnung, Köln, Deutschland.
    6. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2013. "Structural vulnerability and excessive public indebtedness in CFA Franc Zone countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 816-832.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal consolidation; probit regressions; dynamic structural breaks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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