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Technology and the Stock Market: 1885-1998

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Author Info
Boyan Jovanovic (New York University)
Peter L. Rousseau () (Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University)

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Abstract

Using 114 years of U.S. stock market data we try to relate movements in stock prices to changes in technology. We find measures of technological progress explain 37% of the 3.9% annual growth in the stock market over the 1885-1998 period, the "Jazz-Age" (1918-1934) entrants were not overvalued, in spite of the 1929 crash and the Great Depression, and the large shift to stocks and away from debt finance over the entire period does not explain the medium and short frequency movements in stock-market capitalization.

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File URL: http://www.vanderbilt.edu/Econ/wparchive/workpaper/vu00-w42.pdf
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File Function: First version, 2000
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University in its series Working Papers with number 0042.

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Date of creation: Oct 2000
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Handle: RePEc:van:wpaper:0042

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  1. Jones, Charles I., 1994. "Economic growth and the relative price of capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 359-382, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Johnson, William R, 1980. "Vintage Effects in the Earnings of White American Men," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(3), pages 399-407, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Levin, Sharon G & Stephan, Paula E, 1991. "Research Productivity over the Life Cycle: Evidence for Academic Scientists," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 114-32, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Bart Hobijn & Boyan Jovanovic, 2000. "The information technology revolution and the stock market: preliminary evidence," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Apr. [Downloadable!]
  8. Pakes, Ariel S, 1986. "Patents as Options: Some Estimates of the Value of Holding European Patent Stocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(4), pages 755-84, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Michael Gort & Jeremy Greenwood & Peter Rupert, 1999. "Measuring the Rate of Technological Progress in Structures," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(1), pages 207-230, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Ariel Pakes, 1986. "Patents as Options: Some Estimates of the Value of Holding European Patent Stocks," NBER Working Papers 1340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-70, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Rafael Rob & Peter Zemsky, . ""Cooperation, Corporate Culture and Incentive Intensity''," CARESS Working Papres 97-09, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  13. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick Kehoe, 1997. "Industry Evolution and Transition: A Neoclassical Benchmark," NBER Working Papers 6005, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-24, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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