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The Effects of Small Sample Bias in Threshold Autoregressive Models

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  • Yamin Ahmad

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin - Whitewater)

Abstract

This paper investigates the properties of a class of models which incorporate nonlinear dynamics, known as Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) models. Simulations show that within the context of the real exchange rate literature, a threshold model of exchange rates exhibits significant small sample bias even with long time series data. The results of this paper has severe implications for the properties of estimated coefficients within TAR models.

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File URL: http://www.uww.edu/documents/colleges/cobe/economics/wpapers/07_01_Ahmad.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by UW-Whitewater, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 07-01.

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Length: 15 pages
Date of creation: May 2007
Date of revision: Jun 2007
Publication status: published in Economics Letters, August 2008, Vol 101, pp 6 - 8
Handle: RePEc:uww:wpaper:07-01

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Postal: Whitewater, WI 53190-1750
Phone: (414) 472-1361
Web page: http://www.uww.edu/cobe/economics/main.html
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Related research

Keywords: Threshold Autoregressive Models; Nonlinear Models; Small Sample Bias; Real Exchange Rates; Simulation;

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References

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  1. Maurice Obstfeld and Alan M. Taylor., 1997. "Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C97-088, University of California at Berkeley.
  2. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Why is it so Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3024, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," NBER Working Papers 10607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Nathan S. Balke & Thomas B. Fomby, 1992. "Threshold cointegration," Research Paper 9209, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-45, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Yamin Ahmad & Ming Chien Lo & Olena Mykhaylova, 2012. "Causes of Nonlinearities in low order models of the real exchange rate," Working Papers 12-01, UW-Whitewater, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2013.
  2. Yamin Ahmad & Ming Chien Lo & Olena Mykhaylova, 2011. "Volatility and Persistence of Simulated DSGE Real Exchange Rates," Working Papers 11-01, UW-Whitewater, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2012.

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