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Two-sided Learning and Optimal Monetary Policy in an Open Economy Model

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Author Info
Timothy Kam (UWA Business School, The University of Western Australia)
Abstract

In this paper, we consider a dynamic New Keynesian model of the small open economy in the light of bounded rationality. This entails private agents and the central bank updating their beliefs about the laws of motion of inflation, the output gap and real exchange rate, when forming their optimal decisions. It is shown that when all players learn using recursive least-squares or stochastic-gradient adaptive algorithms, the optimal policy steers the economy towards a rational expectations equilibrium (REE) with probability one in some cases. This is also the case when only private agents are learning. However there also exists structural parameter values in the true model such that learning converges with probability zero to REE.

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Paper provided by The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics in its series Economics Discussion / Working Papers with number 04-07.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:uwa:wpaper:04-07

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Related research
Keywords: Optimal monetary policy; Small open economy; Learning; Stochastic approximation;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. James Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Working Papers 2000-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Bernanke, Ben S & Woodford, Michael, 1997. "Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 653-84, November.
    Other versions:
  4. Tommaso Monacelli, 2003. "Monetary policy in a low pass-through environment," Working Paper Series 227, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-54, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Jordi Gali & Tommaso Monacelli, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 8905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2001. "Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2805, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Optimal Monetary Policy in Open versus Closed Economies: An Integrated Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 248-252, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Jordi Gali & Tommaso Monacelli, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 438, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 15 Nov 1999. [Downloadable!]
  10. Lars E. O. Svensson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Implementing Optimal Policy through Inflation-Forecast Targeting," NBER Working Papers 9747, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2001. "Acknowledging Misspecification in Macroeconomic Theory," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(3), pages 519-535, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Kuan, Chung-Ming & White, Halbert, 1994. "Adaptive Learning with Nonlinear Dynamics Driven by Dependent Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(5), pages 1087-1114, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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