IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/uts/wpaper/36.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Takeover Bids, Share Prices, and the Expected Value Hypothesis

Author

Listed:
  • Elaine Hutson

    (Department of Accounting and Finance, Monash University)

  • Graham Partington

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between the price bid for a takeover target, the probability of the bid suceeding and the target's price over the course of the bid. We test and reject Samuelson and Rosenthal's (1986) expected value hypothesis. We find that over the bid, the price of the target of a successful bid typically rises towards the bid price, but is not observed to converge with the bid price. The lack of observed convergence appears to be due to an early cessation of trading in many of the bids that succeed. In the case of bids that fail, the target's share price is typically observed to rise above the bid price early in the bid. We consider several explanations for this, and suggest that the expectation of a subsequent bid is the most plausible explanation. This is supported by our empirical evidence. We also find that in the cases where the bid fails, early cessation of trading did not occur in the majority of cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Elaine Hutson & Graham Partington, 1994. "Takeover Bids, Share Prices, and the Expected Value Hypothesis," Working Paper Series 36, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    • Handle: RePEc:uts:wpaper:36
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.finance.uts.edu.au/research/wpapers/wp36.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Terry S. Walter, 1984. "Australian Takeovers: Capital Market Efficiency and Shareholder Risk and Return," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 9(1), pages 63-118, June.
    2. Bradley, Michael, 1980. "Interfirm Tender Offers and the Market for Corporate Control," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(4), pages 345-376, October.
    3. Jensen, Michael C. & Ruback, Richard S., 1983. "The market for corporate control : The scientific evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-4), pages 5-50, April.
    4. Samuelson, William & Rosenthal, Leonard, 1986. "Price Movements as Indicators of Tender Offer Success," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(2), pages 481-499, June.
    5. Bhagat, Sanjai & Brickley, James A & Loewenstein, Uri, 1987. "The Pricing Effects of Interfirm Cash Tender Offers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(4), pages 965-986, September.
    6. Dodd, Peter & Ruback, Richard, 1977. "Tender offers and stockholder returns : An empirical analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 351-373, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anthony Ravi & Peter Mayall & John Simpson, 2012. "Takeover Probabilities and the Opportunities for Hedge Funds and Hedge Fund Replication to Produce Abnormal Gains," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Greg N. Gregoriou & Maher Kooli (ed.), Hedge Fund Replication, chapter 4, pages 48-60, Palgrave Macmillan.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shams, Syed M.M. & Gunasekarage, Abeyratna & Colombage, Sisira R.N., 2013. "Does the organisational form of the target influence market reaction to acquisition announcements? Australian evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 89-108.
    2. Hutson, Elaine, 2000. "Takeover targets and the probability of bid success: Evidence from the Australian market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 45-65, February.
    3. Hutson, Elaine & Kearney, Colm, 2001. "Volatility in stocks subject to takeover bids: Australian evidence using daily data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 273-296, July.
    4. Philip Brown & Andrew Horin, 1986. "Assessing Competition in The Market for Corporate Control: Australian Evidence," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 11(1), pages 23-50, June.
    5. Patricia Dechow, 1987. "The Share Market's Assessment of Initial Acquisitions by Seven Controversial Investors," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 12(1), pages 23-48, June.
    6. Dennis Mueller, 1996. "Antimerger policy in the United States: History and lessons," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 23(3), pages 229-253, October.
    7. Steve Bishop & Peter Dodd, 1987. "Partial Takeovers: Are They Coercive?," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 12(1), pages 9-22, June.
    8. Kanungo, Rama Prasad, 2021. "Uncertainty of M&As under asymmetric estimation," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 774-793.
    9. Martynova, M. & Renneboog, L.D.R., 2005. "Takeover Waves : Triggers, Performance and Motives," Discussion Paper 2005-029, Tilburg University, Tilburg Law and Economic Center.
    10. Martynova, Marina & Renneboog, Luc, 2008. "A century of corporate takeovers: What have we learned and where do we stand?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2148-2177, October.
    11. Martynova, M., 2006. "The market for corporate control and corporate governance regulation in Europe," Other publications TiSEM 8651e281-4914-41f2-ac14-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. Patricia Charlety-Lepers, 1990. "Les offres publiques d'achat et d'échange. Une synthèse de la littérature," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 41(5), pages 869-894.
    13. Côme Segretain, 2005. "Typologie des déterminants des primes d’offres publiques et validation empirique à partir des notices d’opération," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 81(4), pages 189-209.
    14. Hutson, Elaine & Kearney, Colm, 2005. "Merger arbitrage and the interaction between target and bidder stocks during takeover bids," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 1-26, March.
    15. Jorge Farinha & Francisco Miranda, 2003. "Run-up, toeholds, and agency effects in mergers and acquisitions: evidence from an emerging market," CEF.UP Working Papers 0311, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    16. Firth, Michael, 1997. "Takeovers in New Zealand: Motives, stockholder returns, and executive share ownership," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 419-440, September.
    17. Gerritsen, Dirk F. & Weitzel, Utz, 2017. "Security analyst target prices as reference point and takeover completion," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 1-14.
    18. Anthony Boardman & Z. Stuart Liu & Marshall Sarnat & Ilan Vertinsky, 1998. "The effectiveness of tightening illegal insider trading regulation: the case of corporate takeovers," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(5), pages 519-531.
    19. Joshua Porter & Harminder Singh, 2010. "What Factors Drive Takeovers in Australia?," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 9(2), pages 87-103, August.
    20. M. Àngels Oliva & Luis Rivera-Bátiz, 1997. "A model of conglomeration and synergy traps," Economics Working Papers 232, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uts:wpaper:36. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Duncan Ford (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfutsau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.