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Using Synthetic Data to Measure the Impact of RTGS on Systemic Risk in the Australian Payments System

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Abstract

This paper examines the possibility that financial contagion may be spread from one bank to another via the Australian payments system. The initial study of payments system risk was undertaken by Humphrey (1986) who found significant risk in the U.S. Fedwire system in the mid 1980s. Subsequent studies by Angelini, Maresca & Russo (1996), Kuussaari (1996), Northcott (2002) and Furfine (2003) have found, however, little evidence of systemic risk in the payments systems of Italy, Finland and Canada, and in the U.S. inter-bank market. Given that the implementation of real time gross settlement (RTGS) systems in many countries, including Australia, at significant cost, has been designed to reduce payments system risk, the finding that this risk is small is significant. While detailed payments system data for Australia is not available to researchers outside the Reserve Bank, this study constructs a synthetic data set based on available information and uses this data to simulate the failure of each financial institution operating in the Australian payments system. We find little evidence of systemic risk in the Australian payments system using this approach and conclude that the introduction of RTGS in the Australian system in 1996 had only a marginal effect on risk.

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File URL: http://www.finance.uts.edu.au/research/wpapers/wp149.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Working Paper Series with number 149.

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Length: 41
Date of creation: 01 May 2006
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published as: Docherty, P.. and Wang, G., 201, "Using Synthetic Data to Measure the Impact of RTGS on Systemic Risk in the Australian Payments System", Journal of Financial Stability, 6(2), 103-117.
Handle: RePEc:uts:wpaper:149

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Related research

Keywords: payments system; real time gross settlement (RTGS); deferred net settlement (DNS); systemic risk; contagion;

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References

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  1. Berger, Allen N & Hancock, Diana & Marquardt, Jeffrey C, 1996. "A Framework for Analyzing Efficiency, Risks, Costs, and Innovations in the Payments System," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 696-732, November.
  2. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-76, June.
  3. Furfine, Craig H, 2003. " Interbank Exposures: Quantifying the Risk of Contagion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 111-28, February.
  4. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 2001. "The Great Recession: Lessons for Macroeconomic Policy from Japan," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(2), pages 93-186.
  5. James McAndrews & Samira Rajan, 2000. "The timing and funding of Fedwire funds transfers," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 17-32.
  6. Angelini, P. & Maresca, G. & Russo, D., 1996. "Systemic risk in the netting system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 853-868, June.
  7. Carol Ann Northcott, 2002. "Estimating Settlement Risk and the Potential for Contagion in Canada's Automated Clearing Settlement System," Working Papers 02-41, Bank of Canada.
  8. James J. McAndews & George Wasilyew, 1995. "Simulations of failure in a payment system," Working Papers 95-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  9. Kaufman, George G, 1996. "Comment on Financial Crises, Payment System Problems, and Discount Window Lending," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 825-31, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Clara Lía Machado & Carlos León & Miguel Sarmiento & Freddy Cepeda & Orlando Chipatecua & Jorge cely, . "Riesgo Sistémico y Estabilidad del Sistema de Pagos de Alto Valor en Colombia: Análisis bajo Topología de Redes y Simulación de Pagos," Borradores de Economia 627, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  2. Peter Docherty & Gehong Wang, 2009. "A Revided Exposition of the Methodology for Testing Payments Systems Risk," Working Paper Series 159, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.

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