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Estimation in Models of the Instantaneous Short Term Interest Rate By Use of a Dynamic Bayesian Algorithm

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Author Info
Ram Bhar (School of Banking and Finance, University of New South Wales)
Carl Chiarella () (School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney)
Wolfgang Runggaldier

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Abstract

This paper considers the estimation in models of the instantaneous short interest rate from a new perspective. Rather than using discretely compounded market rates as a proxy for the instantaneous short rate of interest, we set up the stochastic dynamics for the discretely compounded market observed rates and propose a dynamic Bayesian estimation algorithm (i.e. a filtering algorithm) for a time-discretised version of the resulting interest rate dynamics. The filter solution is computed via a further spatial discretization (quantization) and the convergence of the latter to its continuous counterpart is discussed in detail. The method is applied to simulated data and is found to give a reasonable estimate of the conditional density function and to be not too demanding computationally.

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Paper provided by Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Research Paper Series with number 68.

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Date of creation: 01 Dec 2001
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Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:68

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Chan, K C, et al, 1992. " An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-27, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Ram Bhar & Carl Chiarella, 1995. "Transformation of Heath-Jarrow-Morton Models to Markovian Systems," Working Paper Series 53, School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  3. Andersen, Torben G. & Lund, Jesper, 1997. "Estimating continuous-time stochastic volatility models of the short-term interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 343-377, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Brenner, Robin J. & Harjes, Richard H. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1996. "Another Look at Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(01), pages 85-107, March. [Downloadable!]
  5. Nowman, K Ben, 1998. "Continuous-Time Short Term Interest Rate Models," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 401-07, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Episcopos, Athanasios, 2000. "Further evidence on alternative continuous time models of the short-term interest rate," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 199-212, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Carl Chiarella & Sara Pasquali & Wolfgang Runggaldier, 2001. "On Filtering in Markovian Term Structure Models (An Approximation Approach)," Research Paper Series 65, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  9. Nowman, K B, 1997. " Gaussian Estimation of Single-Factor Continuous Time Models of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1695-1706, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Chapman, David A & Long, John B, Jr & Pearson, Neil D, 1999. "Using Proxies for the Short Rate: When Are Three Months Like an Instant?," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 763-806.
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  1. Eckhard Platen & Wolfgang Runggaldier, 2002. "A Benchmark Approach to Filtering in Finance," Research Paper Series 77, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Carl Chiarella & Sara Pasquali & Wolfgang Runggaldier, 2001. "On Filtering in Markovian Term Structure Models (An Approximation Approach)," Research Paper Series 65, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ram Bhar & Carl Chiarella & Hing Hung & Wolfgang Runggaldier, 2004. "The Volatility of the Instantaneous Spot Interest Rate Implied by Arbitrage Pricing - A Dynamic Bayesian Approach," Finance 0409002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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