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Estimating Consumption Plans for Recursive Utility by Maximum Entropy Methods

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Abstract

We derive and estimate the optimal disbursement from an infinitely-lived charitable trust with an Epstein-Zin-Weil utility function, given general Markovian returns to wealth. We analyze two special cases: where spending is a power function of last period's wealth and the endowment uses 'payout smoothing'. Via nonlinear least squares, we estimate the optimal spending rate and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution for a trust with a typical diversified portfolio and for a portfolio of hedge funds. Finally, we use maximum entropy methods to characterize the returns distribution of a trust whose spending plan conforms with the optimality condition.

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File URL: http://www.qfrc.uts.edu.au/research/research_papers/rp300.pdf
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Paper provided by Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Research Paper Series with number 300.

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Length: 26
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:300

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Keywords: Intertemporal choice; Elasticity of intertemporal substitution; Moving average;

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  1. Weil, Philippe, 1990. "Nonexpected Utility in Macroeconomics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 29-42, February.
  2. Martin S. Eichenbaum & Lars Peter Hansen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1986. "A Time Series Analysis of Representative Agent Models of Consumption andLeisure Choice Under Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 1981, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Rockinger, Michael & Jondeau, Eric, 2002. "Entropy densities with an application to autoregressive conditional skewness and kurtosis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 119-142, January.
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  5. Mila Getmansky & Andrew W. Lo & Igor Makarov, 2003. "An Econometric Model of Serial Correlation and Illiquidity in Hedge Fund Returns," NBER Working Papers 9571, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Tobin, James, 1974. "What Is Permanent Endowment Income?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(2), pages 427-32, May.
  8. Golan, Amos & Judge, George G. & Miller, Douglas, 1996. "Maximum Entropy Econometrics," Staff General Research Papers 1488, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  9. Stephen G. Dimmock, 2012. "Background Risk and University Endowment Funds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(3), pages 789-799, August.
  10. Zellner, Arnold & Highfield, Richard A., 1988. "Calculation of maximum entropy distributions and approximation of marginalposterior distributions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 195-209, February.
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  12. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  13. Wu, Ximing, 2003. "Calculation of maximum entropy densities with application to income distribution," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 347-354, August.
  14. Jeffrey R. Brown & Stephen G. Dimmock & Jun-Koo Kang & Scott J. Weisbenner, 2014. "How University Endowments Respond to Financial Market Shocks: Evidence and Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 931-62, March.
  15. Singleton, Kenneth J., 1988. "Econometric issues in the analysis of equilibrium business cycle models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 361-386.
  16. Bhamra, Harjoat S. & Uppal, Raman, 2006. "The role of risk aversion and intertemporal substitution in dynamic consumption-portfolio choice with recursive utility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 967-991, June.
  17. Josh Lerner & Antoinette Schoar & Wan Wong, 2005. "Smart Institutions, Foolish Choices? The Limited Partner Performance Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 11136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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