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A Markovian Defaultable Term Structure Model with State Dependent Volatilities

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Author Info
Carl Chiarella () (School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney)
Erik Schlögl () (School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney)
Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios () (School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney)

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Abstract

The defaultable forward rate is modeled as a jump diffusion process within the Schonbucher (2000, 2003) general Heath, jarrow and Morton (1992) framework where jumps in the defaultable term structure fd(t, T) cause jumps and defaults to the defaultable bond prices Pd(t, T). Within this framework, we investigate an appropriate forward rate volatility structure that results in Markovian defaultable spot rate dynamics. In particular, we consider state dependent Wiener volatility functions and time dependent Poisson volatility functions. The corresponding term structures of interest rates are expressed as finite dimensional affine realisations in terms of benchmark defaultable forward rates. In addition, we extend this model to incorporate stochastic spreads by allowing jump intensities to follow a square-root diffusion process. In that case the dynamics become non-Markovian and to restore path independence we propose either an approximate Markovian scheme or, alternatively, constant Poisson volatility functions. We also conduct some numerical simulations to gauge the effect of the stochastic intensity and the distributional implications of various volatility specifications.

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Paper provided by Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Research Paper Series with number 135.

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Length: 40
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2004
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Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:135

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Related research
Keywords: defaultable HJM model; strochastic credit spreads; defaultable bond prices;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Sarig, Oded & Warga, Arthur, 1989. " Some Empirical Estimates of the Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1351-60, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Inui, Koji & Kijima, Masaaki, 1998. "A Markovian Framework in Multi-Factor Heath-Jarrow-Morton Models," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(03), pages 423-440, September. [Downloadable!]
  3. To, Thuy Duong & Carl Chiarella, 2003. "The Jump Component of the Volatility Structure of Interest Rate Futures Markets: An International Comparison," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 205, Royal Economic Society. [Downloadable!]
  4. Olivier Scaillet & Olivier Renault & Jean-Luc Prigent, 2000. "An Empirical Investigation in Credit Spread Indices," FMG Discussion Papers dp363, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Heath, David & Jarrow, Robert & Morton, Andrew, 1992. "Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 77-105, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Ram Bhar & Carl Chiarella, 1995. "Transformation of Heath-Jarrow-Morton Models to Markovian Systems," Working Paper Series 53, School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  7. Das, Sanjiv R., 2002. "The surprise element: jumps in interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 27-65, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Carl Chiarella & Oh Kwon, 2003. "Finite Dimensional Affine Realisations of HJM Models in Terms of Forward Rates and Yields," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 129-155, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hans Byström & Oh-Kang Kwon, 2003. "A Simple Continuous Measure of Credit Risk," Research Paper Series 111, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Björk, Tomas & Gombani, Andrea, 1997. "Minimal Realizations of Forward Rates," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 182, Stockholm School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Carl Chiarella & Christina Sklibosios, 2003. "A Class of Jump-Diffusion Bond Pricing Models within the HJM Framework," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 87-127, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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