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Assessing Regional Trading Arrangements in the Asia-Pacific

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Abstract

Using both a gravity model to consider the natural trading bloc hypothesis, and simulation using a CGE model to make welfare estimates, we examine the potential effect of a subset of the new RTA proposal in the APEC region. In broad terms the two approaches appear consistent in their ability to identify RTAs that are beneficial in terms of the welfare of the proposed members. However, comparison of the two alternative approaches does not lead to support for the hypothesis that natural blocs are less likely to be damaging to those economies that remain on the outside of the new proposals.

Suggested Citation

  • John Gilbert & Robert Scollay & Bijit Bora, 2011. "Assessing Regional Trading Arrangements in the Asia-Pacific," Working Papers 200101, Utah State University, Department of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:uth:wpaper:200101
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pravin Krishna, 1998. "Regionalism and Multilateralism: A Political Economy Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(1), pages 227-251.
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    3. Martin Richardson, 2017. "Endogenous Protection and Trade Diversion," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Dimensions of Trade Policy, chapter 5, pages 107-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    5. Robert Scollay & John Gilbert, 2000. "Measuring the Gains from APEC Trade Liberalisation: An Overview of CGE Assessments," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 175-197, February.
    6. Kemp, Murray C. & Wan, Henry Jr., 1976. "An elementary proposition concerning the formation of customs unions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 95-97, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Philippa Dee, 2005. "The Australia–US Free Trade Agreement - An Assessment," Trade Working Papers 22309, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    2. Dayaratna, Banda O.G. & Whalley, John, 2005. "Beyond Goods and Services: Competition Policy, Investment, Mutual Recognition, Movement of Persons, and Broader Cooperation Provisions of Recent FTAs Involving ASEAN Countries," Working Papers 24153, Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy Research Network.
    3. Hefeker, Carsten & Nabor, Andreas, 2002. "Yen of Yuan? China's Role in the Future of Asian Monetary Integration," Discussion Paper Series 26125, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    4. Dibyendu Maiti & Sunil Kumar, 2016. "Regional agreements, trade cost and flows in the Pacific," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 33(2), pages 181-199, August.
    5. Lucian Cernat, 2003. "Assessing South–South Regional Integration: Same Issues, Many Metrics," UNCTAD Blue Series Papers 21, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    6. Gloria O. Pasadilla, 2007. "Preferential trading agreements and agricultural liberalization in East and South-East Asia," STUDIES IN TRADE AND INVESTMENT, in: Studies in Trade and Investment - AGRICULTURAL TRADE - PLANTING THE SEEDS OF REGIONAL LIBERALIZATION IN ASIA, volume 60, pages 75-130, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
    7. Tingsong Jiang & Warwick McKibbin, 2009. "What Does a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific Mean to China?," Chapters, in: Chunlai Chen (ed.), China’s Integration with the Global Economy, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Carsten Hefeker & Andreas Nabor, 2005. "China's role in East-Asian monetary integration," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 157-166.
    9. Claudio Candia Campano & Medardo Aguirre González & Lilliam Antón López & Javier Beltrán Valdebenito, 2018. "A gravity model of trade for Nicaraguan agricultural exports," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, vol. 37(74), pages 391-428, July.
    10. Isabelle Rabaud & Thierry Montalieu, 2012. "Une analyse critique des mesures de restriction aux échanges de services," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 63(4), pages 779-793.
    11. Nianli Zhou & John Whalley, 2014. "How Do the "GATS-Plus" and "GATS-Minus" Characteristics of Regional Service Agreements Affect Trade in Services?," NBER Working Papers 20551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Arkan Fadhil & Fithra Faisal Hastiadi, 2017. "Dynamics of Service Trade in Association of Southeast Asian Nations: Process Towards Integration," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(4), pages 714-725.
    13. Trotignon, Jérôme, 2010. "Does Regional Integration Promote the Multilateralization of Trade Flows?: a Gravity Model Using Panel Data," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 25, pages 223-251.
    14. Malhotra, Nisha & Stoyanov, Andrey, 2008. "Analyzing the Agricultural Trade Impacts of the Canada-Chile Free Trade Agreement," Working Papers 46628, Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy Research Network.
    15. Allan N. Rae, 2007. "Regional agricultural trade liberalization - Priorities for policy makers and future research needs," STUDIES IN TRADE AND INVESTMENT, in: Studies in Trade and Investment - AGRICULTURAL TRADE - PLANTING THE SEEDS OF REGIONAL LIBERALIZATION IN ASIA, volume 60, pages 295-309, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
    16. Mr. Tubagus Feridhanusetyawan, 2005. "Preferential Trade Agreements in the Asia-Pacific Region," IMF Working Papers 2005/149, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Jérôme Trotignon, 2009. "L'intégration régionale favorise-t-elle la multilatéralisation des échanges ?," Post-Print halshs-00335633, HAL.
    18. Jane Korinek & Mark Melatos, 2009. "Trade Impacts of Selected Regional Trade Agreements in Agriculture," OECD Trade Policy Papers 87, OECD Publishing.
    19. Tegebu, Fredu Nega & Hussein, Edris Seid, 2015. "Effects of regional trade agreements on trade in strategic," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212634, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    20. Philippa Dee, 2005. "The Australia-US Free Trade Agreement: An Assessment," Asia Pacific Economic Papers 345, Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    21. Claudio Candia Campano & Medardo Aguirre González & Lilliam Antón López & Javier Beltrán Valdebenito, 2018. "A gravity model of trade for Nicaraguan agricultural exports," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, vol. 37(74), pages 391-428, July.
    22. Jose Daniel Rodríguez-Delgado, 2007. "Safta: Living in a World of Regional Trade Agreements," IMF Working Papers 2007/023, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Luis Abugattas Majluf, 2004. "Swimming In The Spaghetti Bowl: Challenges For Developing Countries Under The "New Regionalism"," UNCTAD Blue Series Papers 27, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    24. Jerome TROTIGNON, 2009. "LES EFFETS DES NOUVEAUX ACCORDS DE LIBRE-COMMERCE EN AMeRIQUE LATINE," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 29, pages 31-48.
    25. Sampath Jayasinghe & Rakhal Sarker, 2008. "Effects of Regional Trade Agreements on Trade in Agrifood Products: Evidence from Gravity Modeling Using Disaggregated Data," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 61-81.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade policy; Asia; CGE;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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