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Ellsberg Rules and Keynes’s State of Long-Term Expectation: More Than an Accordance

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  • Marcello Basili

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Abstract

This paper advances an intuitive way to represent Keynes’s notion of long-term expectation. The epsilon-contamination approach is introduced and a rational and coherent decision rule is derived. The result is evidence that Ellsberg and Keynes share the notion of uncertainty and adopt the same class of decision rules.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Siena in its series Department of Economics University of Siena with number 685.

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Date of creation: Sep 2013
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Handle: RePEc:usi:wpaper:685

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Keywords: Keynes; Ellsberg; expectation; consensus distribution; uncertainty; epsilon-contamination.;

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  1. Fontana, Giuseppe & Gerrard, Bill, 2004. "A Post Keynesian theory of decision making under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 619-637, October.
  2. Lawson, Tony, 1985. "Uncertainty and Economic Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(380), pages 909-27, December.
  3. Grant, Simon & Chateauneuf, A. & Eichberger, J., 2002. "Choice under Uncertainty with the Best and Worst in Mind: Neo-additive Capacities," Working Papers 2002-10, Rice University, Department of Economics.
  4. Gerrard, Bill, 1994. "Beyond Rational Expectations: A Constructive Interpretation of Keynes's Analysis of Behaviour under Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 327-37, March.
  5. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. " Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
  6. Marcello Basili & Luca Pratelli, 2013. "Aggregation of not necessarily independent opinions," Department of Economics University of Siena 677, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
  7. Marcello Basili & Alain Chateauneuf, 2013. "Aggregation of coherent experts opinion: a tractable extreme-outcomes consistent rule," Department of Economics University of Siena 676, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
  8. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Methods and Problems in Business Cycle Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(4), pages 696-715, November.
  9. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
  10. Kopylov, Igor, 2009. "Choice deferral and ambiguity aversion," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 4(2), June.
  11. Basili, Marcello & Zappia, Carlo, 2009. "Keynes's "non-numerical" probabilities and non-additive measures," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 419-430, June.
  12. Wakker, Peter & Tversky, Amos, 1993. " An Axiomatization of Cumulative Prospect Theory," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 147-75, October.
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