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Aggregation of coherent experts opinion: a tractable extreme-outcomes consistent rule

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Author Info

  • Marcello Basili

    ()

  • Alain Chateauneuf

    ()

Abstract

The paper defines a consensus distribution with respect to experts’ opinions by a multiple quantile utility model. The paper points out that the Steiner Point is the representative consensus probability. The new rule of experts’ opinions aggregation, that can be evaluated by the Shapley value in a simple way, is prudential and coherent.

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File URL: http://www.econ-pol.unisi.it/quaderni/676.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Siena in its series Department of Economics University of Siena with number 676.

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Date of creation: Jun 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:usi:wpaper:676

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Related research

Keywords: Ambiguity; Aggregation; Steiner Point; Multiple Priors; Quantiles;

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  1. Clemon, Robert T & Winkler, Robert L, 1986. "Combining Economic Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 39-46, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Marcello Basili, 2013. "Ellsberg Rules and Keynes’s State of Long-Term Expectation: More Than an Accordance," Department of Economics University of Siena 685, Department of Economics, University of Siena.

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