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Was industrialization an escape from the commodity lottery? Evidence from Italy, 1861-1940

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Author Info
Giovanni Federico ()
Michelangelo Vasta ()
Abstract

the specialization in exporting primary products is frequently deemed harmful for long-run development, because it increases volatility of terms of trade and thus the number and frequency of macroeconomic shocks. One would expect modern economic growth to solve the problem by changing the composition of trade. This paper tests this hypothesis with a new series of Italian terms of trade from 1861 to 1939, a period which spans the first stage of the industrialization of the country. The results do not tally with the hypothesis. The change in composition improved marginally the terms of trade, but it did not help much in terms of volatility

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Siena in its series Department of Economics University of Siena with number 573.

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Date of creation: Sep 2009
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Handle: RePEc:usi:wpaper:573

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Related research
Keywords: Italian trade; Terms of trade; Economic growth; Volatility;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Growth and Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
N70 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - General, International, or Comparative
F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

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This page was last updated on 2009-12-1.

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