The Parameter Set in an Adaptive Control Monte Carlo Experiment: Some Considerations
AbstractComparisons of various methods for solving stochastic control economic models can be done with Monte Carlo methods. These methods have been applied to simple one-state, one-control quadraticlinear tracking models; however, large outliers may occur in a substantial number of the Monte Carlo runs when certain parameter sets are used in these models. This paper tracks the source of these outliers to two sources: (1) the use of a zero for the penalty weights on the control variables and (2) the generation of nearzero initial estimate of the control parameter in the systems equations by the Monte Carlo routine. This result leads to an understanding of why both the unsophisticated Optimal Feedback (Certainty Equivalence) and the sophisticated Dual methods do poorly in some Monte Carlo comparisons relative to the moderately sophisticated Expected Optimal Feedback method.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, University of Siena in its series Department of Economics University of Siena with number 507.
Date of creation: Jul 2007
Date of revision:
Adaptive control; Monte Carlo experiment; uncertain parameters; outliers.;
Other versions of this item:
- Tucci, Marco P. & Kendrick, David A. & Amman, Hans M., 2010. "The parameter set in an adaptive control Monte Carlo experiment: Some considerations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1531-1549, September.
- C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
- E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
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