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Drift effect and timing without observability: experimental evidence

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Author Info
Alessandro Innocenti ()
Mauro Caminati ()
Roberto Ricciuti ()

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Abstract

We provide experimental evidence to Binmore and Samuelson’s (1999) insights for modeling the learning process through which equilibrium is selected. They proposed the concept of drift to describe the effect of perturbations on the dynamic process leading to equilibrium in evolutionary games with boundedly rational agents. We test within a random matched population two different versions of the Dalek game where the forward induction equilibrium weakly iterately dominates the other Nash equilibrium in pure strategies. We also assume that the first mover makes her decision first (“timing”) but the second mover is not informed of the first mover's choice (“lack of observability”). Both players are informed of their position in the sequence and of the fact that the second player will decide without knowing the decision of the first player. If the actual observed choices are only those made by other players in previous interactions, the role played by forward induction is replaced with the learning process taking place within the population. Our results support Binmore and Samuelson’s model because the frequency of the forward induction outcome is payoff-sensitive: it strongly increases when we impose a slight change in the payoffs that does not change equilibrium predictions. This evidence reinforces the evolutionary nature of the drift effect.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Siena in its series Department of Economics University of Siena with number 405.

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Date of creation: Oct 2003
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Handle: RePEc:usi:wpaper:405

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Related research
Keywords: evolutionary games; experiments; drift; forward induction; order of play. J.E.L. Classification: C72; C91;

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  1. Cooper, Russell & Douglas V. DeJong & Robert Forsythe & Thomas W. Ross, 1993. "Forward Induction in the Battle-of-the-Sexes Games," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1303-16, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Camerer, Colin F. & Knez, Marc & Weber, Roberto A., 1996. "Timing and Virtual Observability in Ultimatum Bargaining and Weak Link Coordination Games," Working Papers 970, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  3. R. Muller & Asha Sadanand, 2003. "Order of Play, Forward Induction, and Presentation Effects in Two-Person Games," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 5-25, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. John C. Harsanyi & Reinhard Selten, 1988. "A General Theory of Equilibrium Selection in Games," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262582384.
  5. Guth, Werner & Huck, Steffen & Rapoport, Amnon, 1998. "The limitations of the positional order effect: Can it support silent threats and non-equilibrium behavior?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 313-325, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Kandori, Michihiro & Mailath, George J & Rob, Rafael, 1993. "Learning, Mutation, and Long Run Equilibria in Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 29-56, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Ellison, Glenn, 1993. "Learning, Local Interaction, and Coordination," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 1047-71, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Binmore, Ken & Samuelson, Larry, 1999. "Evolutionary Drift and Equilibrium Selection," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 66(2), pages 363-93, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Giovanni Ponti, . "Cycles Of Learning In The Centipede Game," ELSE working papers 024, ESRC Centre on Economics Learning and Social Evolution. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Binmore, Ken & McCarthy, John & Ponti, Giovanni & Samuelson, Larry & Shaked, Avner, 2002. "A Backward Induction Experiment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 48-88, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Amnon Rapoport, 1997. "Order of Play in Strategically Equivalent Games in Extensive Form," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 113-136.
  12. Friedman, Daniel, 1996. "Equilibrium in Evolutionary Games: Some Experimental Results," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(434), pages 1-25, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Amershi Amin H. & Sadanand Asha & Sadanand Venkatraman, 1992. "Player importance and forward induction," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 291-297, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Young, H Peyton, 1993. "The Evolution of Conventions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 57-84, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. repec:att:wimass:199529 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Cooper, Russell & De Jong, Douglas V. & Forsythe, Robert & Ross, Thomas W., 1992. "Forward induction in coordination games," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 167-172, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Kohlberg, Elon & Mertens, Jean-Francois, 1986. "On the Strategic Stability of Equilibria," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1003-37, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Brandts, Jordi & Holt, Charles A., 1995. "Limitations of dominance and forward induction: Experimental evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 391-395, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Balkenborg, Dieter, 1994. "An Experiment on Forward- versus Backward Induction," Discussion Paper Serie B 268, University of Bonn, Germany.
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