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Welche Finanz- und Wirtschaftspolitik braucht Europa?

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  • Keuschnigg, Christian

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Abstract

Dieser Beitrag erörtert die möglichen Ursachen für das Entstehen der aktuellen Verschuldungs- und Finanzkrise im Euroraum und diskutiert Zukunftsszenarien für die Europäische Union. Nach den jüngsten Beschlüssen zeichnet sich eine institutionelle Weiterentwicklung der Union mit folgenden Elementen ab: (i) stärkere Überwachung und Durchsetzung der Fiskalregeln; (ii) Ausbau des europäischen Stabilitätsfonds ESM zur Kreditvergabe an überschuldete Mitgliedsländer unter strikten Sanierungsauflagen; und (iii) Anhebung der minimalen Eigenkapitalquoten der Banken für mehr Systemstabilität und zur Durchsetzung von mehr Marktdisziplin bei der Kreditvergabe an Mitgliedsstaaten. Die Finanzierungskapazität des Stabilitätsfonds auch mit den aufgestockten Mitteln des IWF dürfte jedoch zu klein sein, um die Gefahr einer systemischen Krise bei drohender Insolvenz von grossen Mitgliedsländern wirksam zu bannen. Auch das Grundproblem einer Währungsunion mit geringer Lohnflexibilität und fixem Wechselkurs, nämlich die Tendenz zu Zahlungsbilanzkrisen aufgrund divergierender Wettbewerbsfähigkeit, bleibt ungelöst. Ein unabhängiger, europäischer Währungsfonds, der Kredite nur gegen strenge Reformauflagen vergibt und in Ausnahmesituationen Zugang zur Refinanzierung bei der EZB hätte, verbunden mit der Option eines freiwilligen Austritts besonders bedrängter Mitgliedsländer, könnte die beschlossenen Reformen wirksam ergänzen.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science in its series Economics Working Paper Series with number 1201.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:usg:econwp:2012:01

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Keywords: Staatsschuldenkrise; Währungsunion; Stabilitätsfonds; Fiskalregeln;

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  1. Christian Keuschnigg & Mirela Keuschnigg & Reinhard Koman & Erik Lüth & Bernd Raffelüschen, 2000. "Public Debt and Generational Balance in Austria," Empirica, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 225-252, September.
  2. Jakob von Weizsäcker & Jacques Delpla, 2010. "The Blue Bond Proposal," Policy Briefs 403, Bruegel.
  3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-78, May.
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  5. Martin S. Feldstein, 2011. "The Euro and European Economic Conditions," NBER Working Papers 17617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Daniel Gros & Thomas Mayer, 2011. "EFSF 2.0 or the European Monetary Fund," CESifo DICE Report, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 9(3), pages 31-39, October.
  8. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Costs and Benefits of the EMU and Other Monetary Unions: An Overview of Recent Research," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 603-41, September.
  9. De Grauwe, Paul, 2011. "Governance of a Fragile Eurozone," CEPS Papers 5523, Centre for European Policy Studies.
  10. Benedicta Marzinotto & André Sapir & Guntram B. Wolff, 2011. "What kind of fiscal union?," Policy Briefs 646, Bruegel.
  11. ,, 2009. "Economics of Monetary Union," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 8, number 9780199563234.
  12. Beck, T.H.L., 2011. "The Future of Banking," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-5046877, Tilburg University.
  13. Clemens Fuest, 2011. "Will the Reform of the Institutional Framework Restore Fiscal Stability in the Eurozone?," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 12(2), pages 34-39, 07.
  14. Kopf, Christian, 2011. "Restoring financial stability in the euro area," CEPS Papers 4292, Centre for European Policy Studies.
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