Forecasting Implied Volatility Surfaces
AbstractWe propose a new semi-parametric model for the implied volatility surface, which incorporates machine learning algorithms. Given a starting model, a tree-boosting algorithm sequentially minimizes the residuals of observed and estimated implied volatility. To overcome the poor predicting power of existing models, we include a grid in the region of interest, and implement a cross-validation strategy to find an optimal stopping value for the tree boosting. Back testing the out-of-sample appropriateness of our model on a large data set of implied volatilities on S&P 500 options, we provide empirical evidence of its strong predictive potential, as well as comparing it to other standard approaches in the literature.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen in its series University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2007 with number 2007-42.
Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2007
Date of revision:
Implied Volatility; Implied Volatility Surface; Forecasting; Tree Boosting; Regression Tree; Functional Gradient Descent;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-11-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2007-11-24 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2007-11-24 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FOR-2007-11-24 (Forecasting)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hentschel, Ludger, 2003. "Errors in Implied Volatility Estimation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(04), pages 779-810, December.
- Rama Cont & Jose da Fonseca, 2002. "Dynamics of implied volatility surfaces," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 45-60.
- Heston, Steven L & Nandi, Saikat, 2000. "A Closed-Form GARCH Option Valuation Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(3), pages 585-625.
- Francesco Audrino, 2005. "The Stability of Factor Models of Interest Rates," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 3(3), pages 422-441.
- Matthias R. Fengler & Wolfgang K. H�rdle & Enno Mammen, 0. "A semiparametric factor model for implied volatility surface dynamics," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 5(2), pages 189-218.
- Bernard Dumas & Jeff Fleming & Robert E. Whaley, 1998. "Implied Volatility Functions: Empirical Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 2059-2106, December.
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