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New Evidence on State Fiscal Multipliers: Implications for State Policies

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Abstract

When state and local governments engage in balanced budget changes in taxes and spending, what fiscal multiplier effects do such policies have on creating local jobs? Traditionally, the view has been that possible job-creation effects of such state and local "demand-side” policies are smaller, second-order effects. Such effects might be worthwhile to take into consideration when a state or local government balances its budget during a recession, but the effects were believed to be of modest magnitude, and not of major importance for more general state and local public policies. However, recent estimates of fiscal multiplier effects of state and local spending and tax policies suggest much larger demand-side effects of such policies on local jobs. These fiscal multiplier effects are large enough to suggest relatively low costs per job created of some tax and spending policy combinations, sufficient to alter the net benefits of many public policies. In particular, this recent research suggests that policies that use tax increases on the top 10 percent of the income distribution to finance either public spending expansions or tax relief for the bottom 90 percent of the income distribution may offer some job creation benefits that are large enough to alter state and local policy decisions. Furthermore, the cost per job created of state business tax incentive policies or business tax cuts may be significantly altered after taking into account the opportunity costs of financing such policies by cutting public spending or raising taxes on the bottom 90 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy J. Bartik, 2017. "New Evidence on State Fiscal Multipliers: Implications for State Policies," Upjohn Working Papers 17-275, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:upj:weupjo:17-275
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle, November.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ionel LEONIDA, 2019. "Influences Of Institutional Factors On The Dimension Of Fiscal And Budgetary Multipliers In Romania For The Period 2006 – 2017," Contemporary Economy Journal, Constantin Brancoveanu University, vol. 4(3), pages 47-53.
    3. Bastian, Jacob E. & Jones, Maggie R., 2021. "Do EITC expansions pay for themselves? Effects on tax revenue and government transfers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    job creation; fiscal multipliers; state and local taxation; state and local expenditures; local labor demand; income distribution; business tax incentives; state and local business taxes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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