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Efficiency, Quality of Forecasts and Radner Equilibria

Author

Listed:
  • Shurojit Chatterji

    (Singapore Management University)

  • Atsushi Kajii

    (Kwansei Gakuin University)

Abstract

We study a simple two period economy with no uncertainty and complete markets where agents trade based on forecasts about the second period spot price. We propose as our solution concept a set of forecasts with the following properties: there exist (heterogenous) forecasts contained in this set that lead to efficient allocations, the set contains only those forecasts that correspond to some efficient equilibrium, and finally that the forecasts assign positive probability to the actual market clearing spot price. We call such a set of prices an efficient equilibrium with ambiguity, and interpret it as a generalization of Radner equilibrium that delivers efficient allocations under forecasts that possess a self-fulfilling property that is weaker than perfect foresight.

Suggested Citation

  • Shurojit Chatterji & Atsushi Kajii, 2020. "Efficiency, Quality of Forecasts and Radner Equilibria," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 024, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:upd:utmpwp:024
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. K. J. Arrow, 1964. "The Role of Securities in the Optimal Allocation of Risk-bearing," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 31(2), pages 91-96.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis

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