This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

An Empirical Analysis of the Thai and Major International Stock Markets

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Chancharat,Surachai (University of Wollongong)
Valadkhani, Abbas () (University of Wollongong)
Abstract

This paper investigates the existence of cointegration and causality between the stock market price indices of Thailand and its major trading partners (Australia, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, the UK and the US), using monthly data spanning December 1987 to December 2005. Both the Engle- Granger two-step procedure (assuming no structural breaks) and the Gregory and Hansen (1996) test (allowing for one structural break) provide no evidence of a long-run relationship between the stock prices of Thailand and these countries. Based on the empirical results obtained from these two residual-based cointegration tests, potential long-run benefits exist from diversifying the investment portfolios internationally to reduce the associated systematic risks across countries. However, in the short run, three unidirectional Granger causalities run from the stock returns of Hong Kong, the Philippines and the UK to those of Thailand, pair-wise. Furthermore, there are two unidirectional causalities running from the stock returns of Thailand to those of Indonesia and the US. We also found empirical evidence of bidirectional Granger causality, suggesting that the stock returns of Thailand and three of its neighbouring countries (Malaysia, Singapore and Taiwan) are interrelated. No previous study examines the possibility that the pair-wise long-run relationship between the stock prices of Thailand and those of both emerging and developed markets may have been subject to a structural break.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.uow.edu.au/content/groups/public/@web/@commerce/@econ/documents/doc/uow038556.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia in its series Economics Working Papers with number wp07-13.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uow:depec1:wp07-13

Contact details of provider:
Postal: School of Economics, University of Wollongong, Northfields Avenue, Wollongong NSW 2522 Australia
Phone: +612 4221-3663
Fax: +612 4221-3725
Web page: http://www.uow.edu.au/commerce/econ/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Ed Wilson).

Related research
Keywords: Stock markets; Cointegration; Structural breaks; Thailand;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
J40 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - General
E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
J40 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - General
J53 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - Labor-Management Relations; Industrial Jurisprudence

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Andrew C. Worthington & Masaki Katsuura & Helen Higgs, 2003. "Price Linkages in Asian Equity Markets: Evidence Bordering the Asian Economic, Currency and Financial Crises," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 29-44. [Downloadable!]
  2. Theodore Syriopoulos, 2004. "International portfolio diversification to Central European stock markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(17), pages 1253-1268, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Ahlgren, Niklas & Antell, Jan, 2002. "Testing for Cointegration between International Stock Prices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(12), pages 851-61, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Sharma, Subhash C. & Wongbangpo, Praphan, 2002. "Long-term trends and cycles in ASEAN stock markets," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 299-315. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Mansor H. Ibrahim & Hassanuddeen Aziz, 2003. "Macroeconomic variables and the Malaysian equity market: A view through rolling subsamples," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 30(1), pages 6-27, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Kasa, Kenneth, 1992. "Common stochastic trends in international stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 95-124, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2005. "Are OECD stock prices characterized by a random walk? Evidence from sequential trend break and panel data models," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 547-556, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Richards, Anthony J., 1995. "Comovements in national stock market returns: Evidence of predictability, but not cointegration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 631-654, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Angelos Kanas, . "Linkages between the US and European Equity Markets: Further Evidence from cointegration Tests," Working Papers 9804, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  13. Chaudhuri, Kausik & Wu, Yangru, 2003. "Random walk versus breaking trend in stock prices: Evidence from emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 575-592, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Susmel, Raul & Engle, Robert F., 1994. "Hourly volatility spillovers between international equity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 3-25, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Lawrence H. Summers, 2000. "International Financial Crises: Causes, Prevention, and Cures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 1-16, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2002. "Financial Market Integration in Europe: On the Effects of EMU on Stock Markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(3), pages 165-93, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1999. "Are Asian stock market fluctuations due mainly to intra-regional contagion effects? Evidence based on Asian emerging stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 251-282, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Fraser, Patricia & Power, David, 1997. "Stock Return Volatility and Information: An Empirical Analysis of Pacific Rim, UK and US Equity Markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 241-53, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Kanas, Angelos, 1998. "Volatility Spillovers across Equity Markets: European Evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 245-56, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Chaudhuri, Kausik, 1997. "Cointegration, Error Correction and Granger Causality: An Application with Latin American Stock Markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 4(8), pages 469-71, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Phylaktis, Kate & Ravazzolo, Fabiola, 2002. "Measuring financial and economic integration with equity prices in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 879-903, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. James MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 90-4, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  23. Robert J. Barro, 2001. "Economic Growth in East Asia Before and After the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 8330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
    Other versions:
  25. Hamori, Shigeyuki & Imamura, Yuriko, 2000. "International Transmission of Stock Prices among G7 Countries: LA-VAR Approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 7(9), pages 613-18, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Kam C. Chan & Benton E. Gup & Ming-Shiun Pan, 1997. "International Stock Market Efficiency and Integration: A Study of Eighteen Nations," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(6), pages 803-813. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  28. Phylaktis, Kate & Ravazzolo, Fabiola, 2005. "Stock market linkages in emerging markets: implications for international portfolio diversification," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 91-106, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Jian Yang & James W. Kolari & Insik Min, 2003. "Stock market integration and financial crises: the case of Asia," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 477-486, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? IDEAS uses the data collected within the RePEc project, the largest online bibliographic database in Economics.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-17.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.