Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

An Empirical Analysis of the Thai and Major International Stock Markets

Contents:

Author Info

Abstract

This paper investigates the existence of cointegration and causality between the stock market price indices of Thailand and its major trading partners (Australia, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, the UK and the US), using monthly data spanning December 1987 to December 2005. Both the Engle- Granger two-step procedure (assuming no structural breaks) and the Gregory and Hansen (1996) test (allowing for one structural break) provide no evidence of a long-run relationship between the stock prices of Thailand and these countries. Based on the empirical results obtained from these two residual-based cointegration tests, potential long-run benefits exist from diversifying the investment portfolios internationally to reduce the associated systematic risks across countries. However, in the short run, three unidirectional Granger causalities run from the stock returns of Hong Kong, the Philippines and the UK to those of Thailand, pair-wise. Furthermore, there are two unidirectional causalities running from the stock returns of Thailand to those of Indonesia and the US. We also found empirical evidence of bidirectional Granger causality, suggesting that the stock returns of Thailand and three of its neighbouring countries (Malaysia, Singapore and Taiwan) are interrelated. No previous study examines the possibility that the pair-wise long-run relationship between the stock prices of Thailand and those of both emerging and developed markets may have been subject to a structural break.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.uow.edu.au/content/groups/public/@web/@commerce/@econ/documents/doc/uow038556.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia in its series Economics Working Papers with number wp07-13.

as in new window
Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uow:depec1:wp07-13

Contact details of provider:
Postal: School of Economics, University of Wollongong, Northfields Avenue, Wollongong NSW 2522 Australia
Phone: +612 4221-3659
Fax: +612 4221-3725
Web page: http://business.uow.edu.au/econ/index.html
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Stock markets; Cointegration; Structural breaks; Thailand;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Jian Yang & James Kolari & Insik Min, 2003. "Stock market integration and financial crises: the case of Asia," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 477-486.
  2. Phylaktis, Kate & Ravazzolo, Fabiola, 2002. "Measuring financial and economic integration with equity prices in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 879-903, November.
  3. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
  4. Angelos Kanas, 1998. "Volatility spillovers across equity markets: European evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 245-256.
  5. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2005. "Are OECD stock prices characterized by a random walk? Evidence from sequential trend break and panel data models," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 547-556.
  6. Angelos Kanas, 1998. "Linkages between the US and European equity markets: further evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 607-614.
  7. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
  8. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
  9. Kasa, Kenneth, 1992. "Common stochastic trends in international stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 95-124, February.
  10. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2002. "Financial Market Integration in Europe: On the Effects of EMU on Stock Markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(3), pages 165-93, July.
  11. Richards, Anthony J., 1995. "Comovements in national stock market returns: Evidence of predictability, but not cointegration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 631-654, December.
  12. Kausik Chaudhuri, 1997. "Cointegration, error correction and Granger causality: an application with Latin American stock markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(8), pages 469-471.
  13. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1999. "Are Asian stock market fluctuations due mainly to intra-regional contagion effects? Evidence based on Asian emerging stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 251-282, August.
  14. Robert J. Barro, 2001. "Economic Growth in East Asia Before and After the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 8330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  16. Mansor H. Ibrahim & Hassanuddeen Aziz, 2003. "Macroeconomic variables and the Malaysian equity market: A view through rolling subsamples," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 30(1), pages 6-27, January.
  17. Andrew C. Worthington & Masaki Katsuura & Helen Higgs, 2003. "Price Linkages in Asian Equity Markets: Evidence Bordering the Asian Economic, Currency and Financial Crises," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 29-44.
  18. Tsangyao Chang, 2001. "Are there any long-run benefits from international equity diversification for Taiwan investors diversifying in the equity markets of its major trading partners, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Thailand," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(7), pages 441-446.
  19. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
  20. Sharma, Subhash C. & Wongbangpo, Praphan, 2002. "Long-term trends and cycles in ASEAN stock markets," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 299-315.
  21. Phylaktis, Kate & Ravazzolo, Fabiola, 2005. "Stock market linkages in emerging markets: implications for international portfolio diversification," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 91-106, April.
  22. Chaudhuri, Kausik & Wu, Yangru, 2003. "Random walk versus breaking trend in stock prices: Evidence from emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 575-592, April.
  23. Kam C. Chan & Benton E. Gup & Ming-Shiun Pan, 1997. "International Stock Market Efficiency and Integration: A Study of Eighteen Nations," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(6), pages 803-813.
  24. Patricia Fraser & David Power, 1997. "Stock return volatility and information: an empirical analysis of Pacific Rim, UK and US equity markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 241-253.
  25. Shigeyuki Hamori & Yuriko Imamura, 2000. "International transmission of stock prices among G7 countries: LA-VAR approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(9), pages 613-618.
  26. Niklas Ahlgren & Jan Antell, 2002. "Testing for cointegration between international stock prices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(12), pages 851-861.
  27. Lawrence H. Summers, 2000. "International Financial Crises: Causes, Prevention, and Cures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 1-16, May.
  28. Susmel, Raul & Engle, Robert F., 1994. "Hourly volatility spillovers between international equity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 3-25, February.
  29. Theodore Syriopoulos, 2004. "International portfolio diversification to Central European stock markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(17), pages 1253-1268.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uow:depec1:wp07-13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Siminski).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.