The Australian Dollar's Long-Term Fluctuations and Trend: The Commodity Prices-cum-Economic Cycles Hypothesis
AbstractThe Australian dollar’s exchange rate (mainly in relation to the American dollar) has received a considerable attention in research and several models have been proposed to explain its trend and fluctuations. Thus, as a conclusion of this research we can say that this commodity currency very much depends on the terms of trade which in turn depend on commodity prices. The present paper is based on this conclusion and hence proposes the possibility that the Australian dollar’s behavior is overwhelmingly explained by a handful of cycles of mainly harmonic frequencies. Using the principles of Fourier analysis, a simple regression provides considerable evidence about the existence of these cycles. In addition, and as important, a search into the commodity realm demonstrates that these cycles are for example related to various cycles of mining and producing minerals. If the proposition of the present paper is true, we have a very simple yet substantial explanation of the long term trend and fluctuations of the Australian dollar exchange rate and probably of exchange rates of many other commodity currencies.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia in its series Economics Working Papers with number wp05-29.
Length: 12 pages
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: School of Economics, University of Wollongong, Northfields Avenue, Wollongong NSW 2522 Australia
Phone: +612 4221-3659
Fax: +612 4221-3725
Web page: http://business.uow.edu.au/econ/index.html
More information through EDIRC
Australian dollar; Fourier; cycles; minerals;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Paul Cashin & C. John McDermott, 2001. "The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices," IMF Working Papers 01/68, International Monetary Fund.
- C. John McDermott & Paul Cashin & Alasdair Scott, 1999.
"Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices,"
IMF Working Papers
99/155, International Monetary Fund.
- Paul Cashin & C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/8, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Cortazar, Gonzalo & Casassus, Jaime, 1998. "Optimal Timing of a Mine Expansion: Implementing a Real Options Model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 755-769.
- Cashin, Paul & Cespedes, Luis F. & Sahay, Ratna, 2004.
"Commodity currencies and the real exchange rate,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 239-268, October.
- Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
- Christopher Bajada, 2003. "Business Cycle Properties of the Legitimate and Underground Economy in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 79(247), pages 397-411, December.
- Tony Makin, 1997. "The Main Determinants of Australia's Exchange Rate," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 30(3), pages 329-339.
- Seppo Pynnonen & Juuso Vataja, 2002. "Bootstrap testing for cointegration of international commodity prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(5), pages 637-647.
- Karfakis, Costas & Phipps, Anthony, 1999. "Modeling the Australian Dollar-US Dollar Exchange Rate Using Cointegration Techniques," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 265-79, May.
- Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2005. "The Exchange Rate and its Fundamentals in a Complex World," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 549-575, 08.
- Henry, Olan T. & Olekalns, Nilss, 2002. "Does the Australian dollar real exchange rate display mean reversion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 651-666, October.
- Graedel, T. E. & Bertram, M. & Fuse, K. & Gordon, R. B. & Lifset, R. & Rechberger, H. & Spatari, S., 2002. "The contemporary European copper cycle: The characterization of technological copper cycles," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 9-26, August.
- Paul Cashin & C. John McCDermott, 2002. "The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(2), pages 2.
- Dimitris Hatzinikolaou & Metodey Polasek, 2005. "The commodity-currency view of the Australian dollar: A multivariate cointegration approach," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 81-99, May.
- Allan Layton, 1997. "A new approach to dating and predicting Australian business cycle phase changes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(7), pages 861-868.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Siminski).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.