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Pre- and Post-Dynamic GST Effects on Goods and Services Included in the CPI Basket

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Abstract

This paper quantifies the magnitude and duration of the GST effect on the quarterly growth rate of the eleven groups of the consumer price index (CPI) in Australia using the Box and Tiao intervention analysis. It was found that prices did not increase significantly before or after the introduction of GST beyond what could have been expected on the basis of the discernible systematic pattern of fluctuation in the data. Furthermore, the varying one-off effect of GST on prices was significant in seven out of eleven CPI groups, the effect was found insignificant for the other four CPI groups.

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File URL: http://www.uow.edu.au/content/groups/public/@web/@commerce/@econ/documents/doc/uow012191.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia in its series Economics Working Papers with number wp05-08.

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Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uow:depec1:wp05-08

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Postal: School of Economics, University of Wollongong, Northfields Avenue, Wollongong NSW 2522 Australia
Phone: +612 4221-3659
Fax: +612 4221-3725
Web page: http://business.uow.edu.au/econ/index.html
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Keywords: Intervention Analysis; Goods and Services Tax; Australia;

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  1. Peter Dawkins & David Johnson, 1998. "The Interaction of Tax and Social Security: Introduction and Overview," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 31(3), pages 258-262.
  2. Abbas Valadkhani & Allan P. Layton, 2003. "Quantifying the Effect of GST on Inflation in Australia’s Capital Cities: An Intervention Analysis," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 153, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
  3. Ada Ho & Alan Wan, 2002. "Testing for covariance stationarity of stock returns in the presence of structural breaks: an intervention analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(7), pages 441-447.
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