Current Climate Variability and Future Climate Change: Estimated Growth and Poverty Impacts for Zambia
AbstractEconomy-wide and hydrological-crop models are combined to estimate and compare the economic impacts of current climate variability and future anthropogenic climate change in Zambia. Accounting for uncertainty, simulation results indicate that, on average, current variability reduces gross domestic product by four percent over a ten-year period and pulls over two percent of the population below the poverty line. Socio-economic impacts are much larger during major drought years, thus underscoring the importance of extreme weather events in determining climate damages. Three climate change scenarios are simulated based on projections for 2025. Results indicate that, in the worst case scenario, damages caused by climate change are half the size of those from current variability. We conclude that current climate variability, rather than climate change, will remain the more binding constraint on economic development in Zambia, at least over the next few decades.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) in its series Working Paper Series with number UNU-WIDER Research Paper WP2011/85.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
climate change; weather variability; economic growth; poverty; Zambia;
Other versions of this item:
- James Thurlow & Tingju Zhu & Xinshen Diao, 2012. "Current Climate Variability and Future Climate Change: Estimated Growth and Poverty Impacts for Zambia," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 394-411, 08.
- NEP-AFR-2012-03-28 (Africa)
- NEP-ALL-2012-03-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2012-03-28 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2012-03-28 (Environmental Economics)
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