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Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security in Tanzania

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  • Arndt, Channing
  • Strzepek, Ken
  • Thurlow, James

Abstract

The consequences of climate change for agriculture and food security in developing countries are of serious concern. Due to their reliance on rain-fed agriculture both as a source of income and consumption, many low-income countries are generally considered to be most vulnerable to climate change. Here, we estimate the impact of climate change on food security in Tanzania. Representative climate projections are used in calibrated crop models to predict crop yield changes for 110 districts in Tanzania. These results are in turn imposed on a highly-disaggregated, dynamic economy-wide model of Tanzania. We find that, relative to a no climate change baseline and considering domestic agricultural production as the principal channel of impact, food security in Tanzania appears likely to deteriorate as a consequence of climate change. The analysis points to a high degree of diversity of outcomes (including some favourable outcomes) across climate scenarios, sectors, and regions. The economic modelling indicates that markets have the potential to smooth outcomes on households across regions and income groups, though noteworthy differences in impacts across households persist both by region and by income category.

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File URL: http://www.wider.unu.edu/stc/repec/pdfs/wp2011/wp2011-052.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) in its series Working Papers with number UNU-WIDER Research Paper WP2011/52.

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Length: 26
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2011-52

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Keywords: climate change; agriculture; food security; crop model; CGE model; Tanzania;

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  1. Pauw, Karl & Thurlow, James, 2011. "Agricultural growth, poverty, and nutrition in Tanzania," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 795-804.
  2. Nelson, Gerald C. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Koo, Jawoo & Robertson, Richard & Sulser, Timothy & Zhu, Tingju & Ringler, Claudia & Msangi, Siwa & Palazzo, Amanda & Batka, Miroslav & Magalhaes, Marilia & Va, 2009. "Climate change: Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation," Food policy reports 21, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  3. Arndt, Channing & Strzepeck, Kenneth & Tarp, Finn & Thurlow, James & Fant, Charles & Wright, Len, 2010. "Adapting to Climate Change An Integrated Biophysical and Economic Assessment for Mozambique," Working Papers wp2010-101, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
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