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Explaining Poverty Evolution: The Case of Mozambique

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Author Info

  • Channing Arndt
  • M. Azhar Hussain
  • E. Samuel Jones
  • Virgulino Nhate
  • Finn Tarp
  • James Thurlow

Abstract

Measuring poverty remains a complex and contentious issue. This is particularly true in sub-Saharan Africa where poverty rates are higher, information bases typically weaker, and the underlying determinants of welfare relatively volatile. This paper employs recently collected data on household consumption in Mozambique to examine the evolution of consumption poverty with focus on the period 2002/03 to 2008/09. The paper contributes in four areas. First, the period in question was characterized by major movements in international commodity prices. Mozambique provides an illuminating case study of the implications of these world commodity price changes for living standards of poor people. Second, a novel ‘backcasting’ approach using a computable general equilibrium model of Mozambique, linked to a poverty module is introduced. Third, the backcasting approach is also employed to rigorously examine the poverty-growth-inequality triangle. Finally, various simple but useful and rarely applied approaches to considering regional changes in poverty rates are presented. We find that the national poverty rate in Mozambique stagnated between 2002/03 and 2008/09.

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File URL: http://www.wider.unu.edu/stc/repec/pdfs/wp2011/wp2011-17.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) in its series Working Paper Series with number UNU-WIDER Working Paper WP2011/17.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2011-17

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Keywords: measurement; poverty; growth; inequality; economy-wide modelling;

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References

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  1. Arndt, Channing & Benfica, Rui & Tarp, Finn & Thurlow, James & Uaiene, Rafael, 2008. "Biofuels, poverty, and growth: A computable general equilibrium analysis of Mozambique," IFPRI discussion papers 803, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  2. Tarp, Finn, et al, 2002. "The Robustness of Poverty Profiles Reconsidered," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(1), pages 77-108, October.
  3. Channing Arndt & Rui Benfica & Nelson Maximiano & Antonio M. D. Nucifora & James T. Thurlow, 2008. "Higher fuel and food prices: impacts and responses for Mozambique," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 497-511, November.
  4. Tarp, Finn & Arndt, Channing & Jensen, Henning Tarp & Robinson, Sherman & Heltberg, Rasmus, 2002. "Facing the development challenge in Mozambique: an economywide perspective," Research reports 126, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  5. Finn Tarp, 2006. "Aid and Development," Discussion Papers 06-12, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Pauw, Karl & Thurlow, James & Uaiene, Rafael & Mazunda, John, 2012. "Agricultural growth and poverty in Mozambique: Technical analysis in support of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Program (CAADP)," MSSP working papers 2, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  2. Arndt, Channing & Strzepek, Kenneth & Thurlow, James, 2011. "Climate Change and Infrastructure Investment in Developing Countries: The Case of Mozambique," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  3. Fox, Louise & Sohnesen, Thomas Pave, 2013. "Household enterprises in Mozambique : key to poverty reduction but not on the development agenda ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6570, The World Bank.
  4. Pauw, Karl & Thurlow, James, 2013. "Prioritizing rural investments in Africa: A hybrid evaluation approach applied to Uganda," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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