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The Impact of the Global Commodity and Financial Crises on Poverty in Vietnam

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  • Thurlow, James
  • Tarp, Finn
  • McCoy, Simon
  • Hai, Ngugyen Manh
  • Breisinger, Clemens
  • Arndt, Channing

Abstract

Economic growth in Vietnam has been fairly resilient to the global commodity and financial crises, but it is unclear why. In addition, the impact of the crises on employment and poverty is in dispute. We develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to decompose impacts and estimate distributional outcomes. Our results indicate that the 2008 commodity crisis increased employment and reduced poverty by favouring labour-intensive exports, especially in agriculture. The 2009 financial crisis reversed these gains. It pushed more than a million workers into unemployment and about 3 million people below the US$2-a-day poverty line, with the vast majority of these being rural dwellers. The net effect of the crises left Vietnam little changed from a baseline (no crises) path in terms of aggregate indicators including the poverty rate. An effective stimulus package has the potential to offset one third of the increase in poverty caused by the financial crisis leaving poverty rates below the (no crises) baseline.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) in its series Working Paper Series with number wp2010-98.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2010-98

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Keywords: Economic crisis; growth; poverty; Vietnam;

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Cited by:
  1. Bryan, Elizabeth & De Pinto, Alessandro & Ringler, Claudia & Asuming-Brempong, Samuel & Bendaoud, Luís Artur & Givá, Nicia & Anh, Dao The & Mai, Nguyen Ngoc & Asenso-Okyere, Kwadwo & Sarpong, Da, 2012. "Institutions for agricultural mitigation: Potential and challenges in four countries," CAPRi working papers 107, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  2. World Bank, 2012. "Republic of Yemen - Joint Social and Economic Assessment," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12284, The World Bank.
  3. Rodriguez-Takeuchi, Laura & Imai, Katsushi S., 2013. "Food price surges and poverty in urban Colombia: New evidence from household survey data," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 227-236.
  4. Breisinger, Clemens & Ecker, Olivier & Al-Riffai, Perrihan & Engelke, Wilfried & Al-Bataly, Abdulmajeed, 2012. "Managing transition in Yemen: An assessment of the costs of conflict and development scenarios for the future," IFPRI discussion papers 1210, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  5. World Bank & United Nations & European Union & Islamic Development Bank, 2012. "Joint Social and Economic Assessment for the Republic of Yemen," World Bank Other Operational Studies 11920, The World Bank.

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