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Measuring the Effect of Spell Recurrence on Poverty Dynamics

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  • Arranz, José Maria
  • Cantó, Olga

Abstract

The analysis of poverty dynamics yields important insights about the expected effectiveness of alternative social policies on poverty reduction. This paper analyses the effect of spell recurrence on poverty dynamics taking into account multiple poverty and non-poverty spells. Using longitudinal data for Spain we obtain that the poverty exit and re-entry rates vary not only with personal or household characteristics but also with spell accumulation and with the duration of past spells. Results indicate that the effect of duration dependence is significant and turns out to be different by spell order. Our findings support progress towards incorporating full individual poverty trajectories more explicitly in estimating the likelihood of future poverty.

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File URL: http://www.wider.unu.edu/stc/repec/pdfs/wp2010/wp2010-72.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) in its series Working Paper Series with number wp2010-72.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2010-72

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Related research

Keywords: poverty dynamics; multiple spells; recurrence;

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  1. Aassve, Arnstein & Burgess, Simon & Dickson, Matt & Propper, Carol, 2005. "Modelling poverty by not modelling poverty: an application of a simultaneous hazards approach to the UK," ISER Working Paper Series 2005-26, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
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Cited by:
  1. Olga Cantó & Carlos Gradín & Coral del Río, 2010. "Pobreza crónica, transitoria y recurrente en España," Working Papers 1003, Universidade de Vigo, Departamento de Economía Aplicada.
  2. Ebru Çaglayan & Naime Irem Kosan & Melek Astar, 2012. "An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Household Poverty in Turkey," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 2(1), pages 181-191, March.
  3. Carlos Gradín & Olga Cantó, 2009. "Why are child poverty rates so persistently high in Spain?," Working Papers 123, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.

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