Asset-Based Poverty in Rural Tajikistan: Who Climbs out and Who Falls in?
AbstractTajikistan?s rural sector has witnessed substantial development since the country began to emerge from civil conflict in 1999. Gross agricultural output increased 64 per cent from 1999 to 2003, and there were significant developments in the agricultural reform agenda. This paper uses the panel component of two surveys conducted in Tajikistan at a one-year interval (2003 and 2004) to explore the major determinants of the transition out of/into poverty of rural households. Poverty status is measured in the asset space, thus indicating structural rather than transitory poverty movements. The empirical analysis reveals several interesting findings that are also important from a policy perspective: first, cotton farming seems to have no positive impact on poverty levels, nor on mobility out of poverty. Second, the rate of increase in the share of private farming at the district level had little impact on poverty levels and poverty mobility. Third, there is strong evidence of geographic poverty mobility traps in Tajikistan. Higher levels of poverty in a district appear to reduce significantly the chance of a household shedding poverty. Living in a region with overall slow economic growth is also found to undermine the odds of exiting poverty and to increase the risk of falling into poverty. Finally, several key household-level factors, such as the share of adults, education level, health status and participation in wage employment, also emerge as significant predictors of poverty mobility.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) in its series Working Paper Series with number RP2008/26.
Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
welfare; poverty; Tajikistan;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2008-09-29 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2008-09-29 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2008-09-29 (Development)
- NEP-LAB-2008-09-29 (Labour Economics)
- NEP-TRA-2008-09-29 (Transition Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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