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Asset-Based Poverty in Rural Tajikistan: Who Climbs out and Who Falls in?

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  • Ivaschenko, Oleksiy
  • Mete, Cem
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    Abstract

    Tajikistan?s rural sector has witnessed substantial development since the country began to emerge from civil conflict in 1999. Gross agricultural output increased 64 per cent from 1999 to 2003, and there were significant developments in the agricultural reform agenda. This paper uses the panel component of two surveys conducted in Tajikistan at a one-year interval (2003 and 2004) to explore the major determinants of the transition out of/into poverty of rural households. Poverty status is measured in the asset space, thus indicating structural rather than transitory poverty movements. The empirical analysis reveals several interesting findings that are also important from a policy perspective: first, cotton farming seems to have no positive impact on poverty levels, nor on mobility out of poverty. Second, the rate of increase in the share of private farming at the district level had little impact on poverty levels and poverty mobility. Third, there is strong evidence of geographic poverty mobility traps in Tajikistan. Higher levels of poverty in a district appear to reduce significantly the chance of a household shedding poverty. Living in a region with overall slow economic growth is also found to undermine the odds of exiting poverty and to increase the risk of falling into poverty. Finally, several key household-level factors, such as the share of adults, education level, health status and participation in wage employment, also emerge as significant predictors of poverty mobility.

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    File URL: http://www.wider.unu.edu/stc/repec/pdfs/rp2008/rp2008-26.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) in its series Working Paper Series with number RP2008/26.

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    Length: 30 pages
    Date of creation: 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:rp2008-26

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    Keywords: welfare; poverty; Tajikistan;

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    1. Sahn, David E. & Stifel, David C., 2000. "Poverty Comparisons Over Time and Across Countries in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 2123-2155, December.
    2. Olga Canto, 2002. "Climbing out of poverty, falling back in: low income stability in Spain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(15), pages 1903-1916.
    3. Jyotsna Jalan & Martin Ravallion, 1998. "Geographic Poverty Traps?," Boston University - Institute for Economic Development 86, Boston University, Institute for Economic Development.
    4. Michael Carter & Christopher Barrett, 2006. "The economics of poverty traps and persistent poverty: An asset-based approach," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 178-199.
    5. David E. Sahn & David Stifel, 2003. "Exploring Alternative Measures of Welfare in the Absence of Expenditure Data," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 49(4), pages 463-489, December.
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    Cited by:
    1. Atamanov, Aziz & Van den Berg, Marrit, 2012. "Determinants of the rural nonfarm economy in Tajikistan," MERIT Working Papers 080, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

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