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Forecasting the labour market by occupation and education: Some key issues


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  • Cörvers,Frank
  • Heijke,Hans

    (ROA wp)


In this paper, we focus on two key characteristics of ROA’s forecasting approach of the labour market by occupation and education. These concern the use of the gap approach, and the substitution of education programmes within occupations. We show that the gap between supply and demand constitutes a useful and informative concept, which can be justifiably used as long as too little is known about the adjustment process in the labour market. Then we discuss the structure of the substitution process, mainly focusing on substitution as a result of the initially expected gaps between supply and demand. We distinguish between active substitution, resulting from supply-demand mismatches for the education programme concerned, and passive substitution, which is due to spillover effects from supply-demand mismatches for other education programmes. Passive substitution between education programmes is included in the forecasts when the final gaps between supply and demand are calculated. Recent ROA forecasts are used to illustrate the meaning of the various substitution processes for expected labour demand and the gaps between supply and demand. We find that omitting substitution demand from the forecasting model results in future labour market prospects that are generally too pessimistic for the higher educated.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA) in its series ROA Working Paper with number 001.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:unm:umarow:2005001

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Keywords: education; training and the labour market;


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  1. Myra Wieling & Lex Borghans, 2001. "Descrepancies between Supply and Demand and Adjustment Processes in the Labour Market," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 15(1), pages 33-56, 03.
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Cited by:
  1. Heijke,H., 1996. "Labour Market Information for Educational Investments," ROA Working Paper 002, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
  2. Barbu Bogdan POPESCU & Lavinia ªtefania ÞOÞAN & Silvia Elena CRISTACHE, 2013. "Statistical Modeling of Stochastic Dependences between Variables that Characterize Labor Market in Romania for Taking Relevant Management Decisions for a Competitive and Sustainable Development of Lab," Economia. Seria Management, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 16(2), pages 216-226, December.
  3. Willems,E., 1996. "Manpower Forecasting and Modelling Replacement Demand: An Overview," ROA Working Paper 004, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
  4. Naura F. Campos & Gerard Hughes & St pan Jurajda & Daniel Munich, 1999. "When the Future is not what it used to be: Lessons from the Western European Experience to Forecasting Education and Training in Transition Economies," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 265, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  5. Grip,A.,de & Heijke,H., 1998. "Beyond Manpower Planning: ROA's Labour Market Model and its Forecasts to 2002," ROA Working Paper 006, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
  6. Cörvers Frank & Dupuy Arnaud & Dijksman Sander & Golsteyn Bart & Kriechel Ben & Montizaan Raymond, 2010. "Methodik Arbeitsmarktprognosen und -indikatoren 2005-2010," ROA Technical Report 001, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).


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