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The Credibility of Cabo Verde’s Currency Peg

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Author Info
Macedo, Jorge Braga de
Pereira, Luis Brites

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Abstract

This paper studies the credibility of the currency peg of Cape Verde (CV) by assessing the impact of economic fundamentals, our explanatory variables, on the stochastic properties of Exchange Market Pressure (EMP), the dependent variable, using EGARCH-M models. Our EMP descriptive analysis finds a substantial reduction in the number of crisis episodes and of (unconditional) volatility after the peg’s adoption. Moreover, our estimation results suggest that mean EMP is driven by fundamentals and that conditional variability is more sensitive to negative shocks. We also find evidence that the expected return from holding CV’s assets is lower under the currency peg for the same increase in monthly volatility. The reason is that the return’s composition is “more virtuous”, as it results from the strengthening of CV’s foreign reserve position and is not due to either a larger risk premium or favourable exchange rate movements. We take this to be a sign of the credibility of the peg, which apparently reflects the intertemporal credibility of CV’s economic policy and so has successfully withstood international markets’ scrutiny.

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Paper provided by Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia in its series FEUNL Working Paper Series with number wp494.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:unl:unlfep:wp494

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  1. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2006. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," NBER Working Papers 12484, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Pentti J.K. Kouri & Jorge B. de Macedo, 1978. "Exchange Rates and the International Adjustment Process," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 488, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  4. Weymark, Diana N., 1995. "Estimating exchange market pressure and the degree of exchange market intervention for Canada," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 273-295, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Romain Weber, 2005. "Cape Verde's exchange rate policy and its alternatives," BCL working papers 16, Central Bank of Luxembourg. [Downloadable!]
  6. Linda S. Goldberg & Michael W. Klein, 2005. "Establishing Credibility: Evolving Perceptions of the European Central Bank," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp105, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
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