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Understanding willingness to migrate illegally: Evidence from a lab in the field experiment

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  • Tijan L. Bah
  • Cátia Batista

Abstract

Illegal migration to Europe through the sea, though risky, remains one of the most popular migration options for many Sub-Saharan Africans. This study aims at improving our understanding of the determinants of the willingness to migrate illegally from West Africa to Europe. We implemented an incentivized lab-in-the field experiment in rural Gambia, the country with the highest rate of illegal migration to Europe in the region. Sampled male youths aged 15 to 25 were given hypothetical scenarios regarding the probability of dying en route to Europe, and of obtaining asylum or legal residence status after successful arrival. According to our data, potential migrants overestimate both the risk of dying en route to Europe, and the probability of obtaining legal residency status. The experimental results suggest that the willingness to migrate illegally is affected by information on the chances of dying en route and of obtaining a legal residence permit. Our estimates show that providing potential migrants with official numbers on the probability of obtaining a legal residence permit decreases their likelihood of migration by 2.88 percentage points (pp), while information on the risk of migrating increases their likelihood of migration by 2.29pp – although the official risk information provided may be regarded as a lower bound to actual mortality. Follow up data collected one year after the experiment show that the migration decisions reported in the lab experiment correlate well with actual migration decisions and intentions. Overall, our study indicates that the migration decisions of potential migrants are likely to actively respond to relevant information.

Suggested Citation

  • Tijan L. Bah & Cátia Batista, 2018. "Understanding willingness to migrate illegally: Evidence from a lab in the field experiment," NOVAFRICA Working Paper Series wp1803, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics, NOVAFRICA.
    • Handle: RePEc:unl:novafr:wp1803
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Batista, Catia & McKenzie, David, 2023. "Testing classic theories of migration in the lab," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
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    12. Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes & Thitima Puttitanun & Ana Martinez-Donate, 2013. "How Do Tougher Immigration Measures Affect Unauthorized Immigrants?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(3), pages 1067-1091, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Batista, Catia & McKenzie, David, 2023. "Testing classic theories of migration in the lab," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    2. Romuald Meango, 2023. "Identification of Ex Ante Returns Using Elicited Choice Probabilities," Papers 2303.03009, arXiv.org.
    3. Tjaden, Jasper & Dunsch, Felipe Alexander, 2021. "The effect of peer-to-peer risk information on potential migrants – Evidence from a randomized controlled trial in Senegal," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    4. Clemens, Michael A., 2020. "The Emigration Life Cycle: How Development Shapes Emigration from Poor Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 13614, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Auriol, Emmanuelle & Mesnard, Alice & Perrault, Tiffanie, 2023. "Temporary foreign work permits: Honing the tools to defeat human smuggling," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    6. Michael A. Clemens & Mariapia Mendola, 2020. "Migration from Developing Countries: Selection, Income Elasticity, and Simpson’s Paradox," Working Papers 539, Center for Global Development.
    7. Bah, Tijan L. & Batista, Catia & Gubert, Flore & McKenzie, David, 2023. "Can information and alternatives to irregular migration reduce “backway” migration from The Gambia?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    8. Tra Thi Trinh & Alistair Munro, 2022. "Climate change and migration decisions: A choice experiment from the Mekong Delta, Vietnam," GRIPS Discussion Papers 22-07, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    9. Sandrine Mesplé-Somps & Björn Nilsson, 2020. "Role models and migration intentions," Working Papers DT/2020/13, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    10. Romuald Méango & François Poinas, 2023. "The (Option-) Value of Overstaying," CESifo Working Paper Series 10536, CESifo.
    11. Romauld Méango, 2023. "Identification of ex ante returns using elicited choice probabilities," Economics Series Working Papers 1007, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. Tanja Stitteneder & Carla Rhode, 2019. "ifo Migrationsmonitor: Informationskampagnen zur Förderung der regulären Migration," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(16), pages 65-69, August.
    13. Trinh, Tra Thi & Munro, Alistair, 2023. "Integrating a choice experiment into an agent-based model to simulate climate-change induced migration: The case of the Mekong River Delta, Vietnam," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    14. Jules Gazeaud & Eric Mvukiyehe & Olivier Sterck, 2023. "Cash Transfers and Migration: Theory and Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 143-157, January.
    15. Jasper Tjaden & Horace Gninafon, 2022. "Raising Awareness About the Risk of Irregular Migration: Quasi‐Experimental Evidence from Guinea," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 48(3), pages 745-766, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International migration; Information; Expectations; Illegal migration; Willingness to migrate; Lab-in-the-Field Experiment; The Gambia;
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