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The relationship between rainfall and human density and its implications for future water stress in sub-Saharan Africa

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  • David le Blanc
  • Romain Perez

Abstract

This paper uses Geographic Information System (GIS) data on population density, rainfall and climate change scenarios in order to identify areas that will be subject to increased water stress due to insufficient precipitation to support their projected population levels in 2050. Density increases across the continent should lead to a significant increase in the extent of water stressed zones, especially around the Sahel belt and in Eastern Africa. Changes in rainfall, the pattern of which remains inherently uncertain today, could mitigate or compound those effects. Consequences of unsustainably high local densities such as migrations are bound to become more prevalent.

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File URL: http://www.un.org/esa/desa/papers/2007/wp57_2007.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs in its series Working Papers with number 57.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:une:wpaper:57

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Web page: http://www.un.org/esa
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Related research

Keywords: climate change; rainfall; climate modeling; demographic growth; migrations; Africa;

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  1. BARRIOS, Salvador & BERTINELLI, Luisito & STROBL, Eric, 2006. "Climatic change and rural-urban migration: the case of sub-Saharan Africa," CORE Discussion Papers 2006046, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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Cited by:
  1. Don Driscoll & Adam Felton & Philip Gibbons & Annika Felton & Nicola Munro & David Lindenmayer, 2012. "Priorities in policy and management when existing biodiversity stressors interact with climate-change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 111(3), pages 533-557, April.
  2. Naude, Wim, 2008. "Conflict, Disasters, and No Jobs: Reasons for International Migration from Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Paper Series RP2008/85, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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