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Global Rebalancing: Effects On Trade Flows And Employment

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  • Jörg Mayer

Abstract

Medium-terms shifts in the structure of world demand affect the sectoral composition of domestic output, trade and employment. A sustained reduction of global current-account imbalances implies a decline in the share of household consumption in aggregate demand in the United States and the opposite development in China. The net effect of these adjustments for the world economy would be deflationary and yet insufficient for the unwinding of global imbalances. It would also cause sizeable adverse employment impacts in the world economy as a whole. A multilaterally coordinated rebalancing that would also include an increase in the share of household consumption in aggregate demand of developed country surplus economies would reduce these adverse effects. Apart from the countries undertaking rebalancing, developing countries in East and South-East Asia are likely to face the greatest adjustment pressure from global rebalancing.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by United Nations Conference on Trade and Development in its series UNCTAD Discussion Papers with number 200.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:unc:dispap:200

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Cited by:
  1. Wim Naudé, 2011. "The Global Financial Crisis and Development: Implications for the Entrepreneurial Economy," Working Papers 2011/01, Maastricht School of Management.
  2. Mayer, Jörg, 2012. "Global rebalancing: Effects on trade and employment," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 627-642.
  3. Jan Priewe, 2011. "Die Weltwirtschaft im Ungleichgewicht Globale Zahlungsbilanzungleichgewichte - Ursachen, Gefahren, Korrekturen," Competence Centre on Money, Trade, Finance and Development, Hochschule fuer Technik und Wirtschaft, Berlin 1103, Hochschule fuer Technik und Wirtschaft, Berlin.
  4. Naude, Wim, 2009. "The Global Economic Crisis after One Year: Is a New Paradigm for Recovery in Developing Countries Emerging?," Working Paper Series, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) UNU-WIDER UNU Policy Brie, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  5. Singh, Ajit, 2011. "The economic and financial crisis of 2008-2010: the international dimension," MPRA Paper 53091, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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