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Tripling Africa´S Primary Exports: What? How? Where?

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  • Jörg Mayer
  • Pilar Fajarnes

Abstract

Income growth in Africa sufficiently high to achieve the internationally agreed development goals implies a rise in the region’s per capita income by the early 2020s to about Latin America’s current level. This would be associated with roughly a tripling of Africa’s primary exports. Increased African supply on world commodity markets would tend to make prices lower, but not by much, given the smallness of its market shares. Rising global demand from sustained rapid growth in natural-resource-poor Asian countries, particularly China, would moderate, or even compensate, such a potential fall in prices and provide sizeable new opportunities for Africa’s primary exports. In Africa, extractive industries would be poised best to benefit directly from China’s rising imports, while exporters of agricultural products would be more likely to benefit indirectly from rising world market prices associated with Asia’s growing primary imports.

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Paper provided by United Nations Conference on Trade and Development in its series UNCTAD Discussion Papers with number 180.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:unc:dispap:180

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  1. M�ns S–derbom & Francis Teal, 2003. "Are Manufacturing Exports the Key to Economic Success in Africa?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, March.
  2. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2000. "International Data on Educational Attainment Updates and Implications," NBER Working Papers 7911, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Nicolas R. Blancher & Thomas Rumbaugh, 2004. "China," IMF Working Papers 04/36, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Douglas Gollin & Stephen Parente & Richard Rogerson, 2002. "The Role of Agriculture in Development," Department of Economics Working Papers 2002-09, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  5. Vernon W. Ruttan, 2002. "Productivity Growth in World Agriculture: Sources and Constraints," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 161-184, Fall.
  6. Delgado, Christopher L. & Hopkins, Jane & Kelly , Valerie & Hazell, P. B. R. & McKenna, Anna A. & Gruhn, Peter & Hojjati, Behjat & Sil, Jayashree & Courbois, Claude, 1998. "Agricultural growth linkages in Sub-Saharan Africa:," Research reports 107, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  7. Morisset, Jacques, 1998. "Unfair Trade? The Increasing Gap between World and Domestic Prices in Commodity Markets during the Past 25 Years," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 12(3), pages 503-26, September.
  8. Jonathan Kydd & Andrew Dorward & Jamie Morrison & Georg Cadisch, 2004. "Agricultural development and pro-poor economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa: potential and policy," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 37-57.
  9. Leamer, Edward E, 1987. "Paths of Development in the Three-Factor, n-Good General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 961-99, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Enrique Cosio-Pascal, 2008. "The Emerging Of A Multilateral Forum For Debt Restructuring: The Paris Club," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 192, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  2. Jörg Mayer, 2009. "Policy Space: What, for What, and Where?," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 27(4), pages 373-395, 07.
  3. Adrian Wood & Jörg Mayer, 2011. "Has China de-industrialised other developing countries?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 147(2), pages 325-350, June.
  4. Martina Metzger, 2008. "Regional Cooperation And Integration In Sub-Saharan Africa," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 189, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  5. Sebastian Dullien, 2009. "Central Banking, Financial Institutions And Credit Creation In Developing Countries," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 193, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  6. Herrmann, Michael, 2006. "Agricultural Support Measures of Advanced Countries and Food Insecurity in Developing Countries," Working Paper Series RP2006/141, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  7. Alessandro Nicita & Valentina Rollo, 2013. "Tariff Preferences As A Determinant For Exports From Sub-Saharan Africa," UNCTAD Blue Series Papers 60, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.

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