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Tripling Africa´S Primary Exports: What? How? Where?

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Jörg Mayer
Pilar Fajarnes

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Abstract

Income growth in Africa sufficiently high to achieve the internationally agreed development goals implies a rise in the region’s per capita income by the early 2020s to about Latin America’s current level. This would be associated with roughly a tripling of Africa’s primary exports. Increased African supply on world commodity markets would tend to make prices lower, but not by much, given the smallness of its market shares. Rising global demand from sustained rapid growth in natural-resource-poor Asian countries, particularly China, would moderate, or even compensate, such a potential fall in prices and provide sizeable new opportunities for Africa’s primary exports. In Africa, extractive industries would be poised best to benefit directly from China’s rising imports, while exporters of agricultural products would be more likely to benefit indirectly from rising world market prices associated with Asia’s growing primary imports.

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Paper provided by United Nations Conference on Trade and Development in its series UNCTAD Discussion Papers with number 180.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:unc:dispap:180

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  1. Måns S–derbom & Francis Teal, 2003. "Are Manufacturing Exports the Key to Economic Success in Africa?," Journal of African Economies, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, March.
  2. Vernon W. Ruttan, 2002. "Productivity Growth in World Agriculture: Sources and Constraints," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 161-184, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Leamer, Edward E, 1987. "Paths of Development in the Three-Factor, n-Good General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 961-99, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Morisset, Jacques, 1998. "Unfair Trade? The Increasing Gap between World and Domestic Prices in Commodity Markets during the Past 25 Years," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 503-26, September.
  5. Nicolas R. Blancher & Thomas Rumbaugh, 2004. "China: International Trade and WTO Accession," IMF Working Papers 04/36, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Delgado, Christopher L. & Hopkins, Jane & Kelly , Valerie & Hazell, P. B. R. & McKenna, Anna A. & Gruhn, Peter & Hojjati, Behjat & Sil, Jayashree & Courbois, Claude, 1998. "Agricultural growth linkages in Sub-Saharan Africa:," Research reports 107, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
  7. Barro, Robert J & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2001. "International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 541-63, July.
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  8. Jonathan Kydd & Andrew Dorward & Jamie Morrison & Georg Cadisch, 2004. "Agricultural development and pro-poor economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa: potential and policy," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 37-57. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Ruttan, Vernon W., 2002. "Productivity Growth In World Agriculture: Sources And Constraints," Staff Papers 14176, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Douglas Gollin & Stephen Parente & Richard Rogerson, 2002. "The Role of Agriculture in Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 160-164, May. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Herrmann, Michael, 2006. "Agricultural Support Measures of Advanced Countries and Food Insecurity in Developing Countries," Working Papers RP2006/141, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
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