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Survival Analysis Of The Exports Of Least Developed Countries: The Role Of Comparative Advantage

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  • Alessandro Nicita
  • Miho Shirotori
  • Bolormaa Tumurchudur Klok

Abstract

Motivated by the standard Heckscher-Ohlin theory, we investigate whether comparative advantage affects the duration of exports from least developed countries (LDCs). To do so, we first calculate each exported product’s distance from the country’s comparative advantage. Then we estimate a semi-parametric Extended Cox model with time-independent/dependent explanatory variables to measure export survival rates. We find evidence that a product's distance to comparative advantage is a determinant of export survival for LDCs. Moreover, we find that the influence of comparative advantage over LDC export survival increases with time. This implies that exports of products that are close to the country’s comparative advantage are likely to be more durable. In the long run, comparative advantage can evolve dynamically. Export diversification by LDCs into non-traditional sectors calls for vigorous investment to improve the quantity and the quality of their factor endowments.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandro Nicita & Miho Shirotori & Bolormaa Tumurchudur Klok, 2013. "Survival Analysis Of The Exports Of Least Developed Countries: The Role Of Comparative Advantage," UNCTAD Blue Series Papers 54, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    • Handle: RePEc:unc:blupap:54
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lectard, Pauline & Rougier, Eric, 2018. "Can Developing Countries Gain from Defying Comparative Advantage? Distance to Comparative Advantage, Export Diversification and Sophistication, and the Dynamics of Specialization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 90-110.
    2. Pauline Lectard & Alain Piveteau, 2019. "Breaking the export deadlock. Lessons from the analysis of the Moroccan export profile [Sortir de l'impasse exportatrice. Les enseignements de l'analyse du profil des exportations marocaines]," Post-Print hal-03031002, HAL.
    3. Jesse Mora, 2023. "Export failure and its consequences: evidence from Colombian exporters," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(3), pages 697-755, August.
    4. Nick Wilson & Mike Wright & Louise Scholes, 2013. "Family Business Survival and the Role of Boards," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 37(6), pages 1369-1389, November.
    5. Razafimandimby Andrianjaka, Riana & Rougier, Eric, 2019. "“What difference does it make (to be in the Middle Income Trap)?”: An empirical exploration of the drivers of growth slowdowns," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 225-236.
    6. David E. Giles, 2021. "Improved Maximum Likelihood Estimation for the Weibull Distribution Under Length-Biased Sampling," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(1), pages 59-77, December.
    7. Syden Mishi & Weliswa Matekenya & Leward Jeke & Ronney M. Ncwadi & Roseline T. Karambakuwa, 2021. "Firm and product survival analysis: Evidence from South African tax administrative and products data," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-107, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Park, Hyunju & Mulder, Nanno & Park, Yuri, 2018. "Export innovation of SMEs through the extensive margin in Latin America," Comercio Internacional 44113, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    9. Pişkin, Erhan, 2017. "Türkiye İhracatının Ölüm-Kalım Meselesi [The Matter of Survival for Turkish Exports]," MPRA Paper 81459, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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