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Conservative Central Banks, and Nominal Growth, Exchange Rate and Inflation Targets

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A framework is developed in which inflation biases with different target variables are compared. A nominal growth target measured in consumer prices may yield less stabilization bias than a nominal income growth target. Exchange rate and inflation targets result in less stabilization bias than an income growth target the more important terms of trade stabilization. Persistence in output causes excessive stabilization of productivity shocks and of shocks to the terms of trade under discretion. An inflation-weight conservative central bank is more likely under an inflation target than under an exchange rate target and less likely under a nominal income growth target.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Missouri in its series Working Papers with number 0423.

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Length: 35 pgs.
Date of creation: 21 Dec 2004
Date of revision: 15 Oct 2006
Handle: RePEc:umc:wpaper:0423

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Keywords: State-contingent rules; exchange rate target; inflation target; nominal income target; conservative central banks;

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  1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Henrik Jensen & Roel M. W. J. Beetsma, 1999. "Optimal Inflation Targets, "Conservative" Central Banks, and Linear Inflation Contracts: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 342-347, March.
  3. Walsh, Carl E, 1995. "Optimal Contracts for Central Bankers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 150-67, March.
  4. Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1986. "The Advantages of Tying One's Hands: EMS Discipline and Central Bank Credibility," CEPR Discussion Papers 135, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Lockwood, Ben, 1996. "State-contingent Inflation Contracts and Output Persistence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1348, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Svensson, Lars E O, 1997. "Optimal Inflation Targets, "Conservative" Central Banks, and Linear Inflation Contracts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 98-114, March.
  7. Roisland, Oistein, 2001. "Institutional Arrangements for Monetary Policy When Output Is Persistent," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(4), pages 994-1014, November.
  8. Torsten Persson & Guido Tabellini, . "Monetary Cohabitation in Europe," Working Papers 96, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  9. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1993. "Designing institutions for monetary stability," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 53-84, December.
  10. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November.
  12. repec:rus:hseeco:181565 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Jordi Gali & Tommaso Monacelli, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 438, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 15 Nov 1999.
  14. Guender, Alfred V. & Tam, Julie, 2004. "On the performance of nominal income targeting as a strategy for monetary policy in a small open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 143-163, March.
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