Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Monetary policy, asset prices and model uncertainty

Contents:

Author Info

  • Meixing DAI
  • Eleftherios SPYROMITROS

Abstract

Using a macroeconomic model with asset prices, we analyze how optimal monetary policy, and macroeconomic dynamics and performance are affected by the central bank’s desire to be robust against model misspecifications. Considering the worst-case model, we show that an increase in the central bank’s preference for robustness requires a more aggressive reaction of the optimal nominal interest rate with respect to expected inflation and inflation shocks. According to the value of structural parameters, the economic equilibrium can be stable or saddle-point stable. In both cases, the speed of dynamic convergence is smaller under robust control compared to a benchmark case without it. Finally, an increase in the preference for robustness reinforces the reaction of current and expected future inflation, asset prices and output-gap to inflation shocks. However, the preference for robustness has no effect on the reaction of asset prices to the shocks affecting goods demand and financial markets.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.beta-umr7522.fr/productions/publications/2008/2008-15.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg in its series Working Papers of BETA with number 2008-15.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2008-15

Contact details of provider:
Postal: PEGE. 61, Aven. de la Forêt-Noire 67000 Strasbourg
Phone: +33 3 68 85 20 69
Fax: +33 3 68 85 20 70
Email:
Web page: http://www.beta-umr7522.fr/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Monetary policy; asset prices; model uncertainty; macro-financial stability.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. McCallum, Bennett T & Nelson, Edward, 1999. "An Optimizing IS-LM Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 296-316, August.
  2. Marc P. Giannoni, 2007. "Robust optimal monetary policy in a forward-looking model with parameter and shock uncertainty," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 179-213.
  3. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
  4. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2001. "Acknowledging Misspecification in Macroeconomic Theory," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(3), pages 519-535, July.
  5. Q. Farooq Akram & Øyvind Eitrheim, 2006. "Flexible inflation targeting and financial stability: Is it enough to stabilise inflation and output?," Working Paper, Norges Bank 2006/07, Norges Bank.
  6. Robert J. Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, 2002. "Avoiding Nash inflation: Bayesian and robust responses to model uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 2002-9, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Alexandros Kontikas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2004. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Asset Price Misalignments," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004, Money Macro and Finance Research Group 80, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  8. Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Interest-Rate Rules: II. Applications," NBER Working Papers 9420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Andrew T. Levin & John C. Williams, 2003. "Robust monetary policy with competing reference models," Working Paper Series 2003-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  10. Kontonikas, Alexandros & Ioannidis, Christos, 2005. "Should monetary policy respond to asset price misalignments?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 1105-1121, December.
  11. Giordani, Paolo & Söderlind, Paul, 2002. "Solution of Macromodels with Hansen-Sargent Robust Policies: Some Extensions," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 499, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 15 May 2003.
  12. Robert J. Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, 2002. "Monetary Policy, Asset Prices, and Misspecification: the robust approach to bubbles with model uncertainty," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002, Society for Computational Economics 335, Society for Computational Economics.
  13. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Model Uncertainty and Policy Evaluation: Some Theory and Empirics," NBER Working Papers 10916, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Leitemo, Kai & Söderström, Ulf, 2004. "Robust Monetary Policy in the New-Keynesian Framework," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 4805, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May.
  16. Piti Disyatat, 2005. "Inflation targeting, asset prices and financial imbalances: conceptualizing the debate," BIS Working Papers 168, Bank for International Settlements.
  17. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Hans Genberg & Sushil Wadhwani, 2002. "Asset Prices in a Flexible Inflation Targeting Framework," NBER Working Papers 8970, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2003. "Robust control of forward-looking models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 581-604, April.
  19. Onatski, Alexei & Stock, James H., 2002. "Robust Monetary Policy Under Model Uncertainty In A Small Model Of The U.S. Economy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 85-110, February.
  20. Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Interest-Rate Rules: I. General Theory," Levine's Bibliography 506439000000000384, UCLA Department of Economics.
  21. Gilchrist, Simon & Leahy, John V., 2002. "Monetary policy and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 75-97, January.
  22. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-65, September.
  23. Alexandre, Fernando & Bacao, Pedro, 2005. "Monetary policy, asset prices, and uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 37-42, January.
  24. Batini, Nicoletta & Justiniano, Alejandro & Levine, Paul & Pearlman, Joseph, 2006. "Robust inflation-forecast-based rules to shield against indeterminacy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1491-1526.
  25. Conover, C. Mitchell & Jensen, Gerald R. & Johnson, Robert R., 1999. "Monetary environments and international stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(9), pages 1357-1381, September.
  26. Simon Gilchrist & Masashi Saito, 2006. "Expectations, Asset Prices, and Monetary Policy: The Role of Learning," NBER Working Papers 12442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Giannoni, Marc P., 2002. "Does Model Uncertainty Justify Caution? Robust Optimal Monetary Policy In A Forward-Looking Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 111-144, February.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2008-15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.