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A New Interpretation of Kaldor's First Growth Law for Open Developing Countries

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  • Penelope Pacheco-Lopez
  • A.P.Thirlwall

    ()

Abstract

Kaldor’s first law of growth posits a positive causal relation between the growth of manufacturing output and the growth of GDP due to static and dynamic returns to scale in manufacturing and rising productivity outside the manufacturing sector as resources are transferred from diminishing returns activities. In an open economy, however, the Kaldor first law of growth is open to another interpretation because it is apparent across countries that there is a close association between manufacturing output growth and export growth, and between export growth and GDP growth. Results are presented for 89 developing countries over the period 1990-2011, also distinguishing between low income, lower-middle income and upper-middle income countries, and between the continents of Africa, Asia and Latin America.

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File URL: ftp://ftp.ukc.ac.uk/pub/ejr/RePEc/ukc/ukcedp/1312.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Kent in its series Studies in Economics with number 1312.

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Date of creation: Aug 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:1312

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Postal: Department of Economics, University of Kent at Canterbury, Canterbury, Kent, CT2 7NP
Phone: +44 (0)1227 764000
Fax: +44 (0)1227 827850
Web page: http://www.ukc.ac.uk/economics/

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Keywords: Kaldor’s growth laws; manufacturing growth; export growth; GDP growth;

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  1. A. P. Thirlwall, 2011. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Models: History and Overview," Studies in Economics 1111, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  2. Kaldor, Nicholas, 1970. "The Case for Regional Policies," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 17(3), pages 337-48, November.
  3. Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
  4. Anthony Thirlwall, 2011. "Economics of Development," Economics, Palgrave Macmillan, edition 9, number 1, May.
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