Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

A Disaggregate Characterisation of Recessions

Contents:

Author Info

  • Fabrizio Coricelli

    ()

  • Aikaterini Karadimitropoulou

    ()

  • Miguel A. León-Ledesma

    ()

Abstract

The Great Recession has inspired renewed interest in analyzing the behaviour of the economy during recession episodes, and how these temporary events can shape the productive structure of the economy for long periods. Most of the existing literature focuses on recessions at the aggregate level. We provide evidence on the behavior of a large set of developed and emerging markets at the disaggregate level around recession dates. We analyze sectoral value added (VA), employment, productivity, concentration, and structural change, and whether patterns arise in a systematic way. We unveil a set of regularities in the behaviour of these variables for both sets of countries and depending on the productivity level and the level of external financial dependence of industries. We distinguish financial from normal recessions, and look at the patterns of the above variables according to the productivity level and the level of external financial dependence of industries. This study leads to a rich set of results grouped in 14 stylized facts. Most importantly, we found that recessions tend to be more industry specific events in emerging markets and economy-wide phenomena in developed economies. Moreover, the amplitude of the cycle for VA and productivity growth is larger for emerging markets. The opposite is generally true for employment growth. Also, industries with high dependence on external finance generally face higher contractions in VA growth the year of the recession, and those contractions are higher in the case of financial than in the case of normal recessions. Finally, concentration of both VA and employment is higher among emerging markets, and especially when looking at employment shares.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: ftp://ftp.ukc.ac.uk/pub/ejr/RePEc/ukc/ukcedp/1209.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Kent in its series Studies in Economics with number 1209.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Apr 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:1209

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, University of Kent at Canterbury, Canterbury, Kent, CT2 7NP
Phone: +44 (0)1227 764000
Fax: +44 (0)1227 827850
Web page: http://www.ukc.ac.uk/economics/

Order Information:
Email:

Related research

Keywords: recessions; sectoral restructuring; permanent productivity effects;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Barlevy, Gadi, 2002. "The Sullying Effect of Recessions," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(1), pages 65-96, January.
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 1065-1188, November.
  3. Gadi Barlevy, 2007. "On the Cyclicality of Research and Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1131-1164, September.
  4. Pesaran, M.H. & Pierse, R.G. & Lee, K.C., 1990. "Persistence, Cointegration And Aggregation: A Disaggregated Analysis Of Output Fluctuations In The U.S. Economy," Papers 25, California Los Angeles - Applied Econometrics.
  5. Stadler, George W, 1990. "Business Cycle Models with Endogenous Technology," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 763-78, September.
  6. John Haltiwanger & C J Krizan & Lucia Foster, 1998. "Aggregate Productivity Growth: Lessons From Microeconomic Evidence," Working Papers 98-12, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  7. J Malley & V A Muscatelli., . "Business Cycles and Productivity Growth: Are Temporary Downturns Productive or Wasteful?," Working Papers 9605, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  8. Matías Braun & Borja Larrain, 2005. "Finance and the Business Cycle: International, Inter-Industry Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1097-1128, 06.
  9. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2004. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend," NBER Working Papers 10734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging-Market Banking Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1828, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1990. "Financial Fragility and Economic Performance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 87-114, February.
  12. Klingebiel, Daniela & Kroszner, Randall S & Laeven, Luc, 2006. "Banking Crises, Financial Dependence and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 5623, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
  14. Aikaterini Karadimitropoulou & Miguel Leon-Ledesma, 2013. "World, Country, and Sector Factors in International Business Cycles," Studies in Economics 1307, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  15. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Marion Kohler & Christian Upper, 2009. "Financial crises and economic activity," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 89-135.
  16. Jan Fagerberg, 2000. "Technological Progress, Structural Change and Productivity Growth: A Comparative Study," Working Papers 5, Centre for Technology, Innovation and Culture, University of Oslo.
  17. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1995. "Measuring Gross Worker and Job Flows," NBER Working Papers 5133, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "Banking Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace," NBER Working Papers 14587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Davis, Steven J & Haltiwanger, John C, 1992. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction, and Employment Reallocation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 819-63, August.
  20. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2007. "Growth dynamics: the myth of economic recovery," BIS Working Papers 226, Bank for International Settlements.
  21. Baumol, William J & Blackman, Sue Anne Batey & Wolff, Edward N, 1985. "Unbalanced Growth Revisited: Asymptotic Stagnancy and New Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 806-17, September.
  22. Norrbin, Stefan C. & Schlagenhauf, Don E., 1990. "Sources of output fluctuations in the United States during the inter-war and post-war years," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 523-551, October.
  23. Imbs, Jean, 2003. "Trade, Finance, Specialization and Synchronization," CEPR Discussion Papers 3779, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  24. Ross Levine, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June.
  25. Arbache, Jorge Saba & Page, John, 2007. "More growth or fewer collapses ? a new look at long run growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4384, The World Bank.
  26. Jorge Saba Arbache & John Page, 2010. "How Fragile Is Africa's Recent Growth?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 19(1), pages 1-24, January.
  27. Norrbin, Stefan C. & Schlagenhauf, Don E., 1988. "An inquiry into the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 43-70, July.
  28. Eisfeldt, Andrea L. & Rampini, Adriano A., 2006. "Capital reallocation and liquidity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 369-399, April.
  29. Michael Peneder, 2002. "Industrial Structure and Aggregate Growth," WIFO Working Papers 182, WIFO.
  30. Dimitris Christopoulos & Miguel León-Ledesma, 2009. "Efficiency and frontier technology in the aftermath of recessions: international evidence," Studies in Economics 0922, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  31. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
  32. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1990. "Gross Job Creation and Destruction: Microeconomic Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 123-186 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Norrbin, Stefan C. & Schlagenhauf, Don E., 1996. "The role of international factors in the business cycle: A multi-country study," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 85-104, February.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:1209. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Emma Robinson).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.