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Periodically Collapsing Rational Bubbles in Exchange Rates: A Markov-Switching Analysis for a Sample of Industrialised Markets

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  • Jose Eduardo de A. Ferreira
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    Abstract

    This paper investigates the presence of periodically collapsing rational bubbles in exchange rates for a sample of industrialised countries. A periodically collapsing rational bubble is defined as an explosive deviation from economic fundamentals with distinct expansion and contraction phases in finite time. By using Markov-switching regime models we were not able to find robust evidence of a bubble driving the exchange rate away from fundamentals. Moreover, the results also revealed significant non-linearities and different regimes. The importance of these findings suggests that linear monetary models may not be appropriate to examine exchange rate movements.

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    File URL: ftp://ftp.ukc.ac.uk/pub/ejr/RePEc/ukc/ukcedp/0604.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Kent in its series Studies in Economics with number 0604.

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    Date of creation: Sep 2006
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    Handle: RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:0604

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    Postal: Department of Economics, University of Kent at Canterbury, Canterbury, Kent, CT2 7NP
    Phone: +44 (0)1227 764000
    Fax: +44 (0)1227 827850
    Web page: http://www.ukc.ac.uk/economics/

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    Related research

    Keywords: Foreign Exchange; Bubbles; Fundamentals; Markov-Switching; Assets;

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    1. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 1999. "Moral hazard, asset price bubbles, capital flows, and the East Asian crisis:: the first tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 637-657, August.
    2. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2003. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 85-107, May.
    3. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June.
    4. Artis, Michael J & Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Toro, Juan, 1999. "The European Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 2242, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Sensier, Marianne, 2000. "A Disaggregated Markov-Switching Model of the Business Cycle in UK Manufacturing," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(4), pages 442-60, Special I.
    6. Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 1998. "Periodically collapsing stock price bubbles: a robust test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 221-228, November.
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