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Fiscal Consolidation and the Probability Distribution of Deficits: A Stochastic Analysis of the Stability Pact

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  • A J Hughes Hallett
  • Peter McAdam

    ()

Abstract

Using stochastic simulations, this paper analyses the probability distribution of a country's deficit ratio under fixed exchange rates and a variety of monetary policy rules. The purpose is to show how the probability of getting an "excessive deficit", defined as a deficit / GDP ratio in excess of 3% by Europe's Stability Pact, varies with different deficit target rules and different fiscal and monetary policy rules. We find that these fiscal ratios typically have a wide distribution, with fat tails and significantly longer tails on the upper side. That means fiscal targets may have to be country specific and conservative, and that fiscal policy has to be forward looking to keep the probability of excessive deficits below acceptable limits.

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File URL: ftp://ftp.ukc.ac.uk/pub/ejr/RePEc/ukc/ukcedp/0101.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Kent in its series Studies in Economics with number 0101.

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Date of creation: Jan 2001
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Handle: RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:0101

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Postal: Department of Economics, University of Kent at Canterbury, Canterbury, Kent, CT2 7NP
Phone: +44 (0)1227 764000
Fax: +44 (0)1227 827850
Web page: http://www.ukc.ac.uk/economics/

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Keywords: Fiscal cushion; Policy Reaction Functions; Stochastic simulations; Monetary union;

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  1. Artis, Michael J & Buti, Marco, 2000. ""Close to Balance or in Surplus": A Policy Maker's Guide to the Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact," CEPR Discussion Papers 2515, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Paul R. Masson & Bart Turtelboom, 1997. "Characteristics of the Euro, the Demand for Reserves, and Policy Coordination Under EMU," IMF Working Papers 97/58, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Juillard, Michel & Laxton, Douglas & McAdam, Peter & Pioro, Hope, 1998. "An algorithm competition: First-order iterations versus Newton-based techniques," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1291-1318, August.
  4. repec:sae:niesru:v:164:y::i:1:p:90-99 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. McAdam, Peter & Hughes Hallett, A J, 1999. " Nonlinearity, Computational Complexity and Macroeconomic Modelling," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 577-618, December.
  6. Salmon, Mark, 1982. "Error Correction Mechanisms," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 199, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  7. Mitchell, Peter R. & Sault, Joanne E. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2000. "Fiscal policy rules in macroeconomic models: principles and practice," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 171-193, April.
  8. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Bart Turtelboom & Peter Isard & Eswar Prasad, 1998. "Multimod Mark III," IMF Occasional Papers 164, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Mitchell, Peter R. & Sault, Joanne E. & Smith, Peter N. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 1998. "Comparing global economic models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-48, January.
  10. Roberto Perotti, 1999. "Fiscal Policy In Good Times And Bad," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1399-1436, November.
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