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Neural Networks to Predict Financial Time Series in a Minority Game Context

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Author Info
Luca Grilli ()
Angelo Sfrecola

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Abstract

In this paper we consider financial time series from U.S. Fixed Income Market, S&P500, Exchange Market and Oil Market. It is well known that financial time series reveal some anomalies as regards the Efficient Market Hypotesis and some scaling behavior is evident such as fat tails and clustered volatility. This suggests to consider financial time serie as "pseudo"-random time series. For this kind of time series the power of prediction of neural networks has been shown to be appreciable. We first consider the financial time serie from the Minority Game point of view and than we apply a neural network with learning algorithm in order to analyze its prediction power. We show that Fixed Income Market presents many differences from other markets in terms of predictability as a measure of market efficiency.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia in its series Quaderni DSEMS with number 14-2005.

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Date of creation: Jun 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ufg:qdsems:14-2005

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Web page: http://www.dsems.unifg.it
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Related research
Keywords: Minority Game; Learning Algorithms; Neural Networks; Financial Time Series; Efficient Market Hypotesis;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
C70 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - General
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Damien Challet, 2005. "Inter-pattern speculation: beyond minority, majority and $-games," Finance 0503006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Arthur, W Brian, 1994. "Inductive Reasoning and Bounded Rationality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 406-11, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. D. Challet & A. Chessa & M. Marsili & Y. -C. Zhang, 2000. "From Minority Games to real markets," Quantitative Finance Papers cond-mat/0011042, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
  4. Luca Grilli, 2004. "Long-Term Fixed-Income Market Structure," Quaderni DSEMS lg_physa_2003, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia. [Downloadable!]
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