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The Effects of a Conditional Transfer Program on the Labor Market: The Human Development Bonus in Ecuador

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Gonzalez-Rozada
  • Freddy Llerena Pinto

Abstract

In this paper we estimate the impact of a conditional transfer program, the Bono de Desarrollo Humano, over several labor market outcomes in Ecuador. We use the BDH’s targeting mechanism and rely on a regression discontinuity (RD) strategy to isolate the causal effects of the program over the duration of unemployment, the probability of transiting from unemployment to informal employment and the probability of separation from formal employment. We find that (i) mothers with BDH benefits and workers living in households having the BDH program experience a longer duration in unemployment than the comparable group of workers that do not have those benefits; (ii) the program does not had distortive effects on the finding probability of an informal job for mothers and workers living in households with BDH benefits while it seems to have financed the search process for workers living in households with benefits during the period 2005-2006; and (iii) the BDH program increases the probability of separation for mothers having the benefits with respect to the comparable group of mothers that do not have those benefits. These impacts suggest that the government has some room to intervene in the labor market to try to eliminate or at least reduce the negative effects of the program.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Gonzalez-Rozada & Freddy Llerena Pinto, 2011. "The Effects of a Conditional Transfer Program on the Labor Market: The Human Development Bonus in Ecuador," Department of Economics Working Papers 2011-04, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    • Handle: RePEc:udt:wpecon:2011-04
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Katz, Lawrence F. & Meyer, Bruce D., 1990. "The impact of the potential duration of unemployment benefits on the duration of unemployment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 45-72, February.
    5. Ponce, Juan & Bedi, Arjun S., 2010. "The impact of a cash transfer program on cognitive achievement: The Bono de Desarrollo Humano of Ecuador," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 116-125, February.
    6. Lee, David S., 2008. "Randomized experiments from non-random selection in U.S. House elections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 675-697, February.
    7. Imbens, Guido W. & Lemieux, Thomas, 2008. "Regression discontinuity designs: A guide to practice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 615-635, February.
    8. McCrary, Justin, 2008. "Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design: A density test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 698-714, February.
    9. Hahn, Jinyong & Todd, Petra & Van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2001. "Identification and Estimation of Treatment Effects with a Regression-Discontinuity Design," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 201-209, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. María Gabriela Palacio Ludeña, 2019. "Institutionalizing Segregation: Women, Conditional Cash Transfers, and Paid Employment in Southern Ecuador," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 45(S1), pages 245-273, December.
    2. María Gabriela Palacio, 2016. "Institutionalizing segregation: Conditional cash transfers and employment choices," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2016-91, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Daniel Sánchez-Piñol Yulee, 2023. "Show Me the Money! The Effects of a Conditional Cash-Transfer Program on the Labor Market in Ecuador," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 38(Winter 20), pages 1-28.
    4. Goñi Pacchioni, Edwin A., 2013. "Andemic Informality: Assessing Labor Informality, Employment and Income Risk in the Andes," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 461, March.
    5. María Gabriela Palacio, 2016. "Institutionalizing segregation Conditional cash transfers and employment choices," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Working Paper w, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Ryan Nehring, 2012. "Social Protection in Ecuador: A New Vision for Inclusive Growth," Policy Research Brief 28, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    7. María Gabriela Palacio, 2016. "Institutionalizing segregation: Conditional cash transfers and employment choices," WIDER Working Paper Series 091, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Edwin A. Goñi Pacchioni, 2013. "Andemic Informality: Assessing Labor Informality, Employment and Income Risk in the Andes," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 82329 edited by Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), February.
    9. repec:idb:brikps:461 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Scarlato, Margherita, 2012. "Social Enterprise, Capabilities and Development: Lessons from Ecuador," MPRA Paper 37618, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cash transfer programs; regression discontinuity; duration models; Logit and multinomial Logit models.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy

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