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Crecimiento, demanda y exportaciones en la economía uruguaya 1960-2000

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  • Jimena Pardo

    (Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad de la República)

  • Nicolás Reig

    (Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República)

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    Abstract

    This paper analyses the relation between economic growth and external demand in Uruguay during 1960-2000. Following Thirlwall’s post-Keynesian theoretical approach, which is based on Harrod’s foreign trade vision and Kaldor’s “demand oriented” theories, we study the effects on the output growth rate that external demand can generated in the long run, including balance-of-payments constraint. Empirical evidence about some relevant variables are presented. Different econometric tests are applied to study the existence of long run relation between output and exports and to estimate elasticities of demand for import and export. The role of balance-of-payments constraint and the relevance of Harrod foreign trade multiplier in the adjustment process of external unbalanced are considered. We conclude that there is empirical evidence to support Thirlwall’s law, which suggests a balance-of-payments constraint to output growth in the long run, although there is not possible to rule out “supply-side” constrains.

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    File URL: http://decon.edu.uy/publica/2002/Doc1102.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Department of Economics - dECON in its series Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) with number 1102.

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    Length: 61 pages
    Date of creation: Dec 2002
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ude:wpaper:1102

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