Crecimiento, demanda y exportaciones en la economía uruguaya 1960-2000

This paper analyses the relation between economic growth and external demand in Uruguay during 1960-2000. Following Thirlwall’s post-Keynesian theoretical approach, which is based on Harrod’s foreign trade vision and Kaldor’s “demand oriented” theories, we study the effects on the output growth rate that external demand can generated in the long run, including balance-of-payments constraint. Empirical evidence about some relevant variables are presented. Different econometric tests are applied to study the existence of long run relation between output and exports and to estimate elasticities of demand for import and export. The role of balance-of-payments constraint and the relevance of Harrod foreign trade multiplier in the adjustment process of external unbalanced are considered. We conclude that there is empirical evidence to support Thirlwall’s law, which suggests a balance-of-payments constraint to output growth in the long run, although there is not possible to rule out “supply-side” constrains.