Estimating a Risky Term Structure of Uruguayan Sovereign Bonds
AbstractBased on a joint three – factor a¢ ne model, we estimate the term structure of interest rates and default spreads for Uruguay using the reduced - form approach developed by Du¢ e and Singleton. We …nd that Uruguayan average term structure was negatively sloped between 1997 and 2003, as indicated by previous empirical evidence for low –quality debtors. Surprisingly, Uruguayan average yield curve was also negatively sloped between 1997 and 2001, when the country’s foreign –currency denominated debt was considered investment grade by the leading rating agencies. We also …nd that the estimated Uruguayan default spread is able to capture the behavior and dynamics of a more traditional country risk benchmark such as the “Uruguayan Bond Index” (UBI), with observations on a single Uruguayan bond. Finally, we …nd that regional, international and local …nancial crises cause parallel shifts in the Uruguayan yield curve, with higher increases in short –term rates, and that the banking and debt crises experienced by the country in 2002 had the biggest e¤ects on the average Uruguayan term structure.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics - dECON in its series Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) with number 0304.
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: May 2004
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default risk; term structure; reduced-form model; default spread;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-01-01 (All new papers)
- NEP-FIN-2006-01-01 (Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2006-01-01 (Financial Markets)
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