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Uncertainty in Human Capital Investment and Earnings Dynamics

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Seik Kim

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Abstract

There is a literature that examines the statistical properties of earnings dynamics by testing heterogeneous growth against random walk. This test is of great consequence because rejection of heterogeneous growth has often been interpreted as rejection of a key role for heterogeneity in human capital investment over the life-cycle. This paper shows that optimal life-cycle investment behavior implies not only individual heterogeneity in earnings slopes but also the presence of a persistent error process in earnings. Persistent errors are induced by the response of individuals in human capital investments to transitory shocks to the rental rate of human capital. We incorporate uncertainty about future rental rates for human capital into an optimal life-cycle human capital investment model and obtain an earnings equation implied by the solution to the worker's optimal investment decision. Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79), we confirm that heterogeneity in earnings slopes, permanent errors, and transitory shocks all play a significant role in earnings dynamics. We also learn that a worker's earnings are more affected by shifts in human capital accumulation path than by individual difference in the ability to human capital production.

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Paper provided by University of Washington, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number UWEC-2008-18.

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Handle: RePEc:udb:wpaper:uwec-2008-18

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  1. Haley, William J, 1973. "Human Capital: The Choice Between Investment and Income," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(5), pages 929-44, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. MaCurdy, Thomas E., 1982. "The use of time series processes to model the error structure of earnings in a longitudinal data analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 83-114, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Farber, Henry S & Gibbons, Robert, 1996. "Learning and Wage Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(4), pages 1007-47, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Jacob Mincer, 1958. "Investment in Human Capital and Personal Income Distribution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 281. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Costas Meghir & Luigi Pistaferri, 2004. "Income Variance Dynamics and Heterogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(1), pages 1-32, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Heckman, James J. & Lochner, Lance J. & Todd, Petra E., 2003. "Fifty Years of Mincer Earnings Regressions," IZA Discussion Papers 775, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Fatih Guvenen, 2007. "Learning Your Earning: Are Labor Income Shocks Really Very Persistent?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 687-712, June. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Baker, Michael, 1997. "Growth-Rate Heterogeneity and the Covariance Structure of Life-Cycle Earnings," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(2), pages 338-75, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Haley, William J, 1976. "Estimation of the Earnings Profile from Optimal Human Capital Accumulation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(6), pages 1223-38, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Haider, Steven J, 2001. "Earnings Instability and Earnings Inequality of Males in the United States: 1967-1991," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(4), pages 799-836, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
  12. Flavio Cunha & James J. Heckman & Salvador Navarro, 2005. "Separating Uncertainty from Heterogeneity in Life Cycle Earnings," NBER Working Papers 11024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Card, David, 1999. "The causal effect of education on earnings," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 30, pages 1801-1863 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Card, David, 2001. "Estimating the Return to Schooling: Progress on Some Persistent Econometric Problems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(5), pages 1127-60, September.
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  15. Abowd, John M & Card, David, 1989. "On the Covariance Structure of Earnings and Hours Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 411-45, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Topel, Robert H & Ward, Michael P, 1992. "Job Mobility and the Careers of Young Men," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 439-79, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Lillard, Lee A & Weiss, Yoram, 1979. "Components of Variation in Panel Earnings Data: American Scientists, 1960-70," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 437-54, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Yoram Ben-Porath, 1967. "The Production of Human Capital and the Life Cycle of Earnings," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 352. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. James J. Heckman & Lance Lochner & Christopher Taber, 1998. "Explaining Rising Wage Inequality: Explorations with a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of Labor Earnings with Heterogeneous Agents," NBER Working Papers 6384, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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