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Estimating the Return to College in Britain Using Regression and Propensity Score Matching

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  • Wen Fan

    (University College Dublin)

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    Abstract

    College graduates tend to earn more than non-graduates but it is difficult to ascertain how much of this empirical association between wages and college degree is due to the causal effect of a college degree and how much is due to unobserved factors that influence both wages and education (e.g. ability). In this paper, I use the 1970 British Cohort Study to examine the college premium for people who have a similar ability level by using a restricted sample of people who are all college eligible but some never attend. Compared to using the full sample, restricting the sample to college-eligible reduces the return to college significantly using both regression and propensity score matching (PSM) estimates. The finding suggests the importance of comparing individuals of similar ability levels when estimating the return to college.

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    File URL: http://www.ucd.ie/t4cms/WP11_19.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2011
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by School Of Economics, University College Dublin in its series Working Papers with number 201119.

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    Length: 34 pages
    Date of creation: 30 Sep 2011
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ucn:wpaper:201119

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    Related research

    Keywords: return to college; regression; propensity score matching;

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

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    1. Lorraine Dearden, 1998. "Ability, families, education and earnings in Britain," IFS Working Papers W98/14, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    2. Richard J. Murnane & John B. Willett & Frank Levy, 1995. "The Growing Importance of Cognitive Skills in Wage Determination," NBER Working Papers 5076, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Karsten Hansen & James J. Heckman & Kathleen J. Mullen, 2003. "The Effect of Schooling and Ability on Achievement Test Scores," NBER Working Papers 9881, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Nigel C. O’Leary & Peter J. Sloane, 2005. "The Return to a University Education in Great Britain," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 193(1), pages 75-89, July.
    5. Devereux, Paul J. & Fan, Wen, 2011. "Earnings returns to the British education expansion," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1153-1166.
    6. Alberto Abadie & Guido W. Imbens, 2008. "On the Failure of the Bootstrap for Matching Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(6), pages 1537-1557, November.
    7. Arnaud Chevalier & Colm Harmon & Ian Walker & Yu Zhu, 2004. "Does Education Raise Productivity, or Just Reflect it?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(499), pages F499-F517, November.
    8. Caponi, Vincenzo & Plesca, Miana, 2007. "Post-Secondary Education in Canada: Can Ability Bias Explain the Earnings Gap Between College and University Graduates?," IZA Discussion Papers 2784, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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